The Prediction Markets

Tianjin Pioneers vs. Guangzhou Loong Lions

Starts in 3 h 24 minKickoff
Traded
$23K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Guangzhou Loong Lions 70%

Next is O/U 185.5 at 57%. The venues differ most on Tianjin Pioneers (Polymarket 32%, Kalshi 29%), a 3.0-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Guangzhou Loong Lions
70%
Kalshi 70%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Guangzhou Loong Lions
Last price
70%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
69¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$275
Trade this on Kalshi
O/U 185.5
57%
Polymarket 57%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 185.5
Last price
57%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$93
Trade this on Polymarket
Guangzhou Loong Lions (-7.5)
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Guangzhou Loong Lions (-7.5)
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tianjin PioneersArb
31.3%
Polymarket 32%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 29%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tianjin Pioneers vs. Guangzhou Loong Lions
Last price
32%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tianjin Pioneers
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 30¢ and selling on Polymarket at 31¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Tianjin Pioneers on Kalshi at 30¢, sell on Polymarket at 31¢ (100 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 23, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 25, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: flashscore.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Sofascore, CBA
Show full rule comparison
  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Trading closes Oct 23, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 25, 2026, 11:35 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Guangzhou Loong Lions
  • O/U 185.5
  • Guangzhou Loong Lions (-7.5)

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Guangzhou Loong Lions for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Tianjin Pioneers vs. Guangzhou Loong Lions". Guangzhou Loong Lions leads at 70%. Next is O/U 185.5 at 57%. $23K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

In the upcoming CBA game, scheduled for October 23 at 7:35AM ET: If the Tianjin Pioneers win, the market will resolve to "Tianjin Pioneers". If the Guangzhou Loong Lions win, the market will resolve to "Guangzhou Loong Lions". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. The result will be determined based on the final score including any overtime periods.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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