The Prediction Markets

TIME Person of the Year 2026

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$2.0M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Zohran Mamdani 27.1%

Next is Pope Leo XIV at 15.3%. The venues differ most on Zohran Mamdani (Polymarket 24.5%, Kalshi 28%), a 3.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 70 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Zohran Mamdani
27.1%
Polymarket 24.5%live, 5 h agoKalshi 28%live, 5 h agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zohran Mamdani
Price
24.5%
As of
Live feed, 5 h ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Zohran Mamdani
Price
28%
As of
Live feed, 5 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$914K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Pope Leo XIV
15.3%
Polymarket 16%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 15%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pope Leo XIV
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pope Leo XIV
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$186K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Mark Carney
13.9%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 13%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Carney
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Carney
Last price
13%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Donald Trump
9.1%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 9%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$174K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Benjamin Netanyahu
8.6%
Polymarket 10%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 8%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Dario Amodei
7%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 7%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 7.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,370 (13.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dario Amodei
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
7.3¢
Sell Yes
6.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,370 (13.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dario Amodei
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Abdul El-Sayed
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abdul El-Sayed
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Artificial Intelligence
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Artificial Intelligence
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
6.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
James Talarico
6.1%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 7%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Talarico
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Elon Musk
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 6%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$48K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Show 35 more outcomes
AI
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$183K
Trade this on Kalshi
Reid Wiseman
5.7%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 6%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reid Wiseman
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$188
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Reid Wiseman
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Sam Altman
5.6%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 6%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Altman
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$341
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Altman
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Jeremy Hansen
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jeremy Hansen
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
4.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$288
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Hansen
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Victor Glover
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Victor Glover
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Victor Glover
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Christina Koch
4.9%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christina Koch
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$530
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Christina Koch
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Marco Rubio
4.5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
4.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Xi Jinping
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Xi Jinping
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Mojtaba Khamenei
3.9%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mojtaba Khamenei
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mojtaba Khamenei
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Peter Magyar
3.1%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Péter Magyar
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$456
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Péter Magyar
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Bad Bunny
3.1%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bad Bunny
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$248
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bad Bunny
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$79K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Shehbaz Sharif
2.9%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shehbaz Sharif
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$176
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Shehbaz Sharif
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
2.8%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$387
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

ChatGPT
2.8%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
ChatGPT
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
ChatGPT
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Alysa Liu
2.8%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alysa Liu
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alysa Liu
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Taylor Swift
2.7%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 3%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3.1¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,226 (32.3x)
Volume
$219
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Ali Khamenei
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ali Khamenei
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$91
Trade this on Polymarket
Hakeem Jeffries
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hakeem Jeffries
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$626
Trade this on Kalshi
James Stephen "Jimmy" Donaldson / MrBeast
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Stephen "Jimmy" Donaldson / MrBeast
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jon Ossoff
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pete Hegseth
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$983
Trade this on Kalshi
Susie Wiles
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Susie Wiles
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$528
Trade this on Kalshi
Jerome Powell
1.9%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jerome Powell
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$289
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jerome Powell
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Bernie Sanders
1.8%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bernie Sanders
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bernie Sanders
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Chris Wright
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Wright
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Steve Witkoff
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Witkoff
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ali G
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ali G
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Andy Burnham
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andy Burnham
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Christopher Nolan
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Nolan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Kalshi
Erika Kirk
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Erika Kirk
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$479
Trade this on Kalshi
Jared Kushner
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jared Kushner
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Kalshi
JD Vance
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
JD Vance
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$797
Trade this on Kalshi
Kevin Warsh
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kevin Warsh
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lionel Messi
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lionel Messi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi

Venue prices are 5 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the publisher's announcement. Groups and concepts (e.g. 'AI', 'ChatGPT') may be judged differently when TIME names a group.
  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: TIME
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the publisher's announcement. Groups and concepts (e.g. 'AI', 'ChatGPT') may be judged differently when TIME names a group.
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Zohran Mamdani
  • Pope Leo XIV
  • Mark Carney

Live prices for Zohran Mamdani

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "TIME Person of the Year 2026". Zohran Mamdani leads at 27.1%. Next is Pope Leo XIV at 15.3%. $2.0M has traded across 45 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed person, group, entity, or thing is TIME Person of the Year for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A listed option will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they/it are explicitly named as Person of the Year. Additionally, the following rules apply: If multiple people are explicitly named person of the year, both people will be considered TIME Person of the Year. If the TIME Person of the Year is a concept, group or thing, a person may still be considered Person of the Year if they are also explicitly named person of the year, or if they are directly associated with the concept, group or thing named as person of the Year and are pictured on any official TIME cover announcing the Person of the Year. For example, in 2025 when TIME Person of the Year was “Architects of AI” the option for Sam Altman would have resolved to “Yes” as he was associated with the concept and is pictured on the Cover. However, if Sam Altman were Person of the Year, and ChatGPT was shown on the cover, this would not qualify for ChatGPT because ChatGPT is not a person. If the TIME Person of the Year is a specific concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. artificial intelligence), listed concepts or entities will be considered Person of the Year only if they are synonymous with the announced TIME Person of the Year. For example, if ChatGPT were Person of the Year, options for AI or LLMs would resolve to “No” because, while they are conceptually linked, they are not synonymous. If TIME uses language that does not refer to a specific, commonly-recognized, concept, group, entity, or thing (e.g. 2011’s “The Protester” or 2017’s “The Silence Breakers”), the TIME Person of the Year feature article will be used to determine the meaning of the language defining TIME Person of the Year. In such cases, listed concepts, groups, or things will be considered TIME Person of the Year if they can be reasonably understood as equivalent to the meaning of the language used to define TIME Person of the Year. For example, the option for “The Me Too Movement” would have resolved to “Yes” in 2017. If for any reason the TIME's Person of the Year is not announced by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the TIME magazine cover or covers announcing the 2026 TIME Person of the Year; however, the TIME Person of the Year Feature article may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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