The Prediction Markets

TIME's Person of the Year for 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$2.0M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Zohran Mamdani 27.4%

Next is Pope Leo XIV at 14.6%. The venues differ most on James Talarico (Polymarket 3.6%, Kalshi 7%), a 3.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 70 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Zohran MamdaniArb
27.4%
Polymarket 25.5%live, just nowKalshi 28%live, just nowBest Yes 26¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Zohran Mamdani
Price
25.5%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Zohran Mamdani
Price
28%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$914K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 26¢ and selling on Kalshi at 27¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Pope Leo XIVArb
14.6%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 19s agoKalshi 14%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pope Leo XIV
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pope Leo XIV
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$186K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 15¢ and selling on Polymarket at 16¢ nets 100 bps before fees.

Mark CarneyArb
13.7%
Polymarket 16%polled, 19s agoKalshi 13%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mark Carney
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mark Carney
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 13¢ and selling on Polymarket at 15¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Donald Trump
9.9%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 19s agoKalshi 10%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$174K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 10¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 10¢.

Benjamin Netanyahu
8.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 19s agoKalshi 8%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Benjamin Netanyahu
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 9¢.

Dario Amodei
7.2%
Polymarket 7.7%polled, 19s agoKalshi 7%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 7.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,266 (12.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dario Amodei
Last price
7.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7.9¢
Sell Yes
7.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,266 (12.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dario Amodei
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 7.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 8¢.

Abdul El-Sayed
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Abdul El-Sayed
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Artificial Intelligence
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 6.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,471 (14.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Artificial Intelligence
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.8¢
Sell Yes
5.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,471 (14.7x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
James TalaricoArb
6.1%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 19s agoKalshi 7%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
James Talarico
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
James Talarico
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 5¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

Elon Musk
6%
Polymarket 6%polled, 19s agoKalshi 6%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$48K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 7¢.

Show 35 more outcomes
AI
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
AI
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$183K
Trade this on Kalshi
Reid Wiseman
5.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 19s agoKalshi 6%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Reid Wiseman
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
3.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$188
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Reid Wiseman
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5.9¢.

Jeremy Hansen
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 19s agoKalshi 5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jeremy Hansen
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$288
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jeremy Hansen
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Victor Glover
5%
Polymarket 5%polled, 19s agoKalshi 5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Victor Glover
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Victor Glover
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Christina Koch
4.9%
Polymarket 4.7%polled, 19s agoKalshi 5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Christina Koch
Last price
4.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$530
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Christina Koch
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Sam AltmanArb
4.8%
Polymarket 4.3%polled, 19s agoKalshi 5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sam Altman
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
4.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$341
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Altman
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 5¢ nets 50 bps before fees.

Marco Rubio
4.4%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 19s agoKalshi 4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
4.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
4.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Marco Rubio
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 4.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

Xi Jinping
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Xi Jinping
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
4%
Polymarket 4%polled, 19s agoKalshi 4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
3.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Mojtaba Khamenei
3.9%
Polymarket 3.7%polled, 19s agoKalshi 4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mojtaba Khamenei
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$324
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Mojtaba Khamenei
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Bad Bunny
3.1%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 19s agoKalshi 3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bad Bunny
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$248
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bad Bunny
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$79K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Peter Magyar
3.1%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 19s agoKalshi 3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Péter Magyar
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$456
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Péter Magyar
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Shehbaz Sharif
2.9%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 19s agoKalshi 3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shehbaz Sharif
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.5¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,222 (22.2x)
Volume
$176
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Shehbaz Sharif
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4.5¢.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
2.8%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 19s agoKalshi 3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,778 (27.8x)
Volume
$387
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.6¢.

ChatGPT
2.8%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 19s agoKalshi 3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
ChatGPT
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$146
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
ChatGPT
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.8¢.

Alysa Liu
2.8%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 19s agoKalshi 3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alysa Liu
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alysa Liu
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.7¢.

Taylor Swift
2.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 19s agoKalshi 3%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 2.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,571 (35.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$219
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$34K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.8¢.

Ali Khamenei
2%
Polymarket 2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ali Khamenei
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$91
Trade this on Polymarket
Hakeem Jeffries
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Hakeem Jeffries
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$626
Trade this on Kalshi
James Stephen "Jimmy" Donaldson / MrBeast
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Stephen "Jimmy" Donaldson / MrBeast
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jon Ossoff
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jon Ossoff
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Pete Hegseth
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Pete Hegseth
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$983
Trade this on Kalshi
Susie Wiles
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Susie Wiles
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$528
Trade this on Kalshi
Jerome Powell
1.9%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 19s agoKalshi 2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jerome Powell
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Volume
$289
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Jerome Powell
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2.6¢.

Bernie SandersArb
1.8%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 19s agoKalshi 2%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bernie Sanders
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bernie Sanders
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 1.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 2¢ nets 80 bps before fees.

Chris Wright
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Wright
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Steve Witkoff
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Steve Witkoff
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ali G
1.4%
Polymarket 1.4%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ali G
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Andy Burnham
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andy Burnham
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Christopher Nolan
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christopher Nolan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$19
Trade this on Kalshi
Erika Kirk
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Erika Kirk
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$479
Trade this on Kalshi
Jared Kushner
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jared Kushner
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$500
Trade this on Kalshi
JD Vance
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
JD Vance
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$797
Trade this on Kalshi
Kevin Warsh
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kevin Warsh
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Lionel Messi
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 19s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Lionel Messi
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Mark Carney on Kalshi at 13¢, sell on Polymarket at 15¢ (200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on the publisher's announcement. Groups and concepts (e.g. 'AI', 'ChatGPT') may be judged differently when TIME names a group.
  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: TIME
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on the publisher's announcement. Groups and concepts (e.g. 'AI', 'ChatGPT') may be judged differently when TIME names a group.
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Zohran Mamdani
  • Pope Leo XIV
  • Mark Carney

Live prices for Zohran Mamdani

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "TIME's Person of the Year for 2026?". Zohran Mamdani leads at 27.4%. Next is Pope Leo XIV at 14.6%. $2.0M has traded across 45 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More culture markets

See all culture markets