The Prediction Markets

Tlaxcala Governor Election Winner

Closes
Jun 6, 2027, in 8 months
Traded
$134K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera 66.1%

Next is Alfonso Sanchez Garcia at 8.9%. The venues differ most on Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera (Polymarket 70.1%, Kalshi 64%), a 6.1-point gap.

Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera 66.1%Alfonso Sanchez Garcia 8.9%Raymundo Vazquez Conchas 2.2%Anabell Avalos Zempoalteca 1.9%Arturo Díaz Gutiérrez 1.9%18 others 19%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ana Lilia Rivera RiveraArb
66.1%
Polymarket 70.1%(70.9% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 64%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera
Last price
70.1%
Fair, margin removed
70.9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
66.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera
Last price
64%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 64¢ and selling on Polymarket at 66.2¢ nets 220 bps before fees.

Alfonso Sanchez Garcia
8.9%
Polymarket 10.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alfonso Sánchez García
Last price
10.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
19.3¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$518 (5.18x)
Volume
$32K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alfonso Sánchez García
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Raymundo Vazquez Conchas
2.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Raymundo Vázquez Conchas
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Raymundo Vázquez Conchas
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Anabell Avalos Zempoalteca
1.9%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Anabell Ávalos Zempoalteca
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4.1¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,439 (24.4x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Anabell Ávalos Zempoalteca
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Arturo Díaz Gutiérrez
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Arturo Díaz Gutiérrez
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Delfino Suárez Piedras
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Delfino Suárez Piedras
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Francisco Javier Soto Hernández
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Francisco Javier Soto Hernández
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Raúl Antonio Hernández Castro
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Raúl Antonio Hernández Castro
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sergio Iván Larios Salas
1.9%
Kalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sergio Iván Larios Salas
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Hector Bernardo Paredes Mora
1.5%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Héctor Bernardo Paredes Mora
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$649
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Héctor Bernardo Paredes Mora
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Show 13 more outcomes
Concepcion Sanchez Gonzalez
1.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Concepción Sánchez González
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Concepción Sánchez González
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 6¢.

Juan Salvador Santos Cedillo
1.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Juan Salvador Santos Cedillo
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Juan Salvador Santos Cedillo
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Miriam Martinez Sanchez
1.1%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Miriam Martínez Sánchez
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Miriam Martínez Sánchez
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Alejandro Aguilar López
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alejandro Aguilar López
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Enrique Padilla Sánchez
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Enrique Padilla Sánchez
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Juan Manuel Cambrón Soria
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Juan Manuel Cambrón Soria
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Floria Maria Hernandez Hernandez
0.8%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Floria María Hernández Hernández
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Floria María Hernández Hernández
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Irma Yordana Garay Loredo
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Irma Yordana Garay Loredo
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Irma Yordana Garay Loredo
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Vicente Emilio Ponce Cano
0.6%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vicente Emilio Ponce Cano
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Vicente Emilio Ponce Cano
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Josefina Rodríguez Zamora
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josefina Rodríguez Zamora
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Carlos Augusto Perez Hernandez
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carlos Augusto Pérez Hernández
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Carlos Augusto Pérez Hernández
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Identity matched

The outcome identity is linked, but settlement parity is not verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Danae Figueroa
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Danae Figueroa
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Adriana Dávila Fernández
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Adriana Dávila Fernández
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera on Kalshi at 64¢, sell on Polymarket at 66.2¢ (220 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes at different times: Jun 6, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 6, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Instituto Tlaxcalteca de Elecciones, Instituto Nacional Electoral
Show full rule comparison
  • Generic non-US election template: rules are not uniform across events and need a per-event rules comparison before parity can be claimed.
  • Trading closes Jun 6, 2027, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 6, 2028, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera
  • Alfonso Sanchez Garcia
  • Raymundo Vazquez Conchas

Live prices for Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Tlaxcala Governor Election Winner". Ana Lilia Rivera Rivera leads at 66.1%. Next is Alfonso Sanchez Garcia at 8.9%. $134K has traded across 23 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 6, 2027.

Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Tlaxcala on June 6, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Tlaxcala gubernatorial elections. Any interim or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by government sources of Tlaxcala and Mexico, including the Electoral Institute of Tlaxcala and the National Electoral Institute of Mexico.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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