The Prediction Markets

Tocantins Governor winner?

Closes
Oct 25, 2027, in 12 months
Traded
$12K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Vicentinho Júnior 82.8%

Next is Professora Dorinha at 17.2%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Vicentinho Júnior 82.8%Professora Dorinha 17.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Vicentinho Júnior
82.8%
Kalshi 82%(82.8% fair)polled, 59s agoBest Yes 88¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $114 (1.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vicentinho Júnior
Last price
82%
Fair, margin removed
82.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Professora Dorinha
17.2%
Kalshi 17%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Professora Dorinha
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE), Tribunal Regional Eleitoral do Tocantins (TRE-TO)

How the odds have moved

The top 2 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Vicentinho Júnior
  • Professora Dorinha

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 2 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Tocantins Governor winner?". Vicentinho Júnior leads at 82.8%. Next is Professora Dorinha at 17.2%. $12K has traded across 2 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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