The Prediction Markets

Tompkins County District Attorney out by November 30?

Closes
Dec 1, 2026, in 39 days
Traded
$3K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
3 min ago
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What the markets expect

Yes 1.5%

Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Yes 1.5%No 98.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Yes
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 3 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The leading outcome on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Yes

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover Yes and No across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Tompkins County District Attorney out by November 30?". Yes leads at 1.5%. $3K has traded across 1 outcome on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Matthew Van Houten’s departure as District Attorney of Tompkins County, New York is officially announced between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The departure will be considered to be announced when Matthew Van Houten, the Tompkins County District Attorney’s Office, the Office of the Governor of New York, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Matthew Van Houten has ceased or will cease to hold the position of District Attorney of Tompkins County. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when Matthew Van Houten formally leaves the position. Announcements of Matthew Van Houten’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify. Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify). Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to Matthew Van Houten’s duties as District Attorney of Tompkins County do not qualify. The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that Matthew Van Houten is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that Matthew Van Houten will depart only if certain conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that Matthew Van Houten plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than Matthew Van Houten, the Tompkins County District Attorney’s Office, the Office of the Governor of New York, or their authorized representatives. If Matthew Van Houten formally ceases to hold the position of District Attorney of Tompkins County without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to “Yes” if a consensus of credible reporting confirms the departure by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Matthew Van Houten, the Tompkins County District Attorney’s Office, and the Office of the Governor of New York; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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