The Prediction Markets

Top 5 Fantasy WR

Closes
Jan 18, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$21K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Jaxon Smith-Njigba 87%

Next is Amon-Ra St. Brown at 58%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
87%
Kalshi 87%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Last price
87%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
87¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Amon-Ra St. Brown
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 63¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $159 (1.59x)
Kalshi
Contract
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
63¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$159 (1.59x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
CeeDee Lamb
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Kalshi
Contract
CeeDee Lamb
Last price
58%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$925
Trade this on Kalshi
Malik Nabers
51%
Kalshi 51%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Malik Nabers
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$872
Trade this on Kalshi
Keon Coleman
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Keon Coleman
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Puka Nacua
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Puka Nacua
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$682
Trade this on Kalshi
Tee Higgins
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 75¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tee Higgins
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
DJ Moore
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
DJ Moore
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rome Odunze
41%
Kalshi 41%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rome Odunze
Last price
41%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ja'Marr Chase
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ja'Marr Chase
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 51 more outcomes
Antonio Williams
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Antonio Williams
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Courtland Sutton
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Courtland Sutton
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Deebo Samuel Sr.
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Deebo Samuel Sr.
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Denzel Boston
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Denzel Boston
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Devaughn Vele
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Devaughn Vele
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jakobi Meyers
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jakobi Meyers
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jalen Coker
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jalen Coker
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jameson Williams
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jameson Williams
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Jordyn Tyson
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jordyn Tyson
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Downs
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Josh Downs
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Joshua Palmer
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joshua Palmer
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalif Raymond
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kalif Raymond
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Makai Lemon
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Makai Lemon
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Marvin Harrison Jr.
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Marvin Harrison Jr.
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Quentin Johnston
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Quentin Johnston
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Rashod Bateman
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rashod Bateman
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tre Tucker
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tre Tucker
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Christian Watson
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Christian Watson
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Volume
$249
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris Olave
18%
Kalshi 18%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 28¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Olave
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$78
Trade this on Kalshi
Tetairoa McMillan
17%
Kalshi 17%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tetairoa McMillan
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Kalshi
Drake London
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drake London
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$270
Trade this on Kalshi
Zay Flowers
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zay Flowers
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$102
Trade this on Kalshi
Garrett Wilson
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Garrett Wilson
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$11
Trade this on Kalshi
Ladd McConkey
14%
Kalshi 14%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ladd McConkey
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
George Pickens
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
George Pickens
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$38
Trade this on Kalshi
Nico Collins
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nico Collins
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Rashee Rice
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 78¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $128 (1.28x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rashee Rice
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$426
Trade this on Kalshi
Mike Evans
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 47¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mike Evans
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Parker Washington
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Parker Washington
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$225
Trade this on Kalshi
Carnell Tate
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carnell Tate
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$32
Trade this on Kalshi
Matthew Golden
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Matthew Golden
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$25
Trade this on Kalshi
Justin Jefferson
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Justin Jefferson
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
26¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$385 (3.85x)
Volume
$854
Trade this on Kalshi
Luther Burden III
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Luther Burden III
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$672
Trade this on Kalshi
Emeka Egbuka
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Emeka Egbuka
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$274
Trade this on Kalshi
Jaylen Waddle
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jaylen Waddle
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$321
Trade this on Kalshi
Stefon Diggs
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Stefon Diggs
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$398
Trade this on Kalshi
Michael Wilson
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Wilson
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$73
Trade this on Kalshi
Brian Thomas Jr.
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Brian Thomas Jr.
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$382
Trade this on Kalshi
Wan'Dale Robinson
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wan'Dale Robinson
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$420
Trade this on Kalshi
DK Metcalf
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
DK Metcalf
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$120
Trade this on Kalshi
Alec Pierce
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 46¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $217 (2.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alec Pierce
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$217 (2.17x)
Volume
$242
Trade this on Kalshi
Chris Godwin Jr.
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chris Godwin Jr.
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$808
Trade this on Kalshi
Dontayvion Wicks
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dontayvion Wicks
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Marvin Harrison Jr.
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Michael Pittman Jr.
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Roman Wilson
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Roman Wilson
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Romeo Doubs
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Romeo Doubs
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
A.J. Brown
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
A.J. Brown
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$561
Trade this on Kalshi
Davante Adams
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Davante Adams
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
DeVonta Smith
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
DeVonta Smith
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$661
Trade this on Kalshi
Terry McLaurin
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Terry McLaurin
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Tyquan Thornton
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tyquan Thornton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$100
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Sleeper

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Jaxon Smith-Njigba
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown
  • CeeDee Lamb

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Top 5 Fantasy WR". Jaxon Smith-Njigba leads at 87%. Next is Amon-Ra St. Brown at 58%. $21K has traded across 61 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 18, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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