The Prediction Markets

Top 5 Most Searched People on Google 2026

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$218K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Lindsay Clancy 70.5%

Next is Erling Haaland at 50.3%. The venues differ most on Erling Haaland (Polymarket 46.5%, Kalshi 52%), a 5.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Lindsay Clancy
70.5%
Polymarket 70%polled, 58s agoKalshi 72%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 77¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $130 (1.30x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lindsay Clancy
Last price
70%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lindsay Clancy
Last price
72%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
77¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$130 (1.30x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 72¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 77¢.

Erling Haaland
50.3%
Polymarket 46.5%polled, 58s agoKalshi 52%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erling Haaland
Last price
46.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Erling Haaland
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 50¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 54¢.

Savannah Guthrie
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Savannah Guthrie
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi
Josh Allen
42%
Polymarket 42%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Josh Allen
Last price
42%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jude Bellingham
37%
Polymarket 37%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 55¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $182 (1.82x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jude Bellingham
Last price
37%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
55¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$182 (1.82x)
Volume
$897
Trade this on Polymarket
Bad BunnyArb
36.6%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 58s agoKalshi 38%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bad Bunny
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bad Bunny
Last price
38%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 35¢ and selling on Kalshi at 37¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Lionel Messi
34.6%
Polymarket 34.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 67.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $148 (1.48x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lionel Messi
Last price
34.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
67.7¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$148 (1.48x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nicolas MaduroArb
30.8%
Polymarket 32.5%polled, 58s agoKalshi 29%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 29¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $345 (3.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nicolás Maduro
Last price
32.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nicolás Maduro
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
29¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$345 (3.45x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Kalshi at 29¢ and selling on Polymarket at 31¢ nets 200 bps before fees.

Alysa Liu
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alysa Liu
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Robert Downey Jr.
24%
Polymarket 24%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 46.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Robert Downey Jr.
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
46.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 21 more outcomes
Matt Damon
15.6%
Polymarket 15.6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Matt Damon
Last price
15.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
6.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$246
Trade this on Polymarket
Nick Shirley
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Nick Shirley
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Donald Trump
12.3%
Polymarket 13%polled, 58s agoKalshi 12%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Donald Trump
Last price
12%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$108K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 12¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 13¢.

OG Anunoby
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
OG Anunoby
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$60
Trade this on Kalshi
Zohran Mamdani
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zohran Mamdani
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Jalen Brunson
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Jalen Brunson
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$574
Trade this on Kalshi
Sabrina Carpenter
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sabrina Carpenter
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Taylor Swift
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fernando Mendoza
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fernando Mendoza
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$771
Trade this on Kalshi
Elon Musk
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Elon Musk
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kamala Harris
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kamala Harris
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Timothée Chalamet
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Timothée Chalamet
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$560
Trade this on Kalshi
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$107
Trade this on Kalshi
Billie Eilish
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Billie Eilish
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$14
Trade this on Kalshi
Sam Altman
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sam Altman
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Travis Kelce
3.1%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Travis Kelce
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$831
Trade this on Polymarket
Vladimir Putin
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Vladimir Putin
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$64
Trade this on Kalshi
Joe Biden
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Joe Biden
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$585
Trade this on Kalshi
Scarlett Johansson
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Scarlett Johansson
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Neymar
1%
Polymarket 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Neymar
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Stefon Diggs
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stefon Diggs
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$306
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Bad Bunny on Polymarket at 35¢, sell on Kalshi at 37¢ (200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on Google's Year in Search Global list for the year.
  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Google Trends
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on Google's Year in Search Global list for the year.
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Lindsay Clancy
  • Erling Haaland
  • Savannah Guthrie

Live prices for Lindsay Clancy

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Top 5 Most Searched People on Google 2026". Lindsay Clancy leads at 70.5%. Next is Erling Haaland at 50.3%. $218K has traded across 31 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is ranked in the Top 5 of Google’s official Year in Search Global "People" list for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The specified list is expected to be displayed on the Google Trends Year in Search hub, with location selected to Global. The navigation procedure as of market creation involves going to trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search/ and clicking through Global → Trending → People. The 2026 page is expected to appear using the same navigation once released (as the 2025 page currently shows the specified ranking). This market will resolve based on the specified list regardless of navigation procedure. This market may resolve as soon as the specified list for 2026 is released. If Google does not release the specified list by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be the specified list as published by Google.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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