The Prediction Markets

Top Album on Spotify U.S in 2026?

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$2.2M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Bad Bunny 90%

Next is End of Beginning – Djo at 83.8%. The venues differ most on Debí Tirar Más Fotos (Polymarket 92.5%, Kalshi 1%), a 92-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 58 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Bad Bunny
90%
Polymarket 90%live, just nowBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bad Bunny
Price
90%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$449K
Trade this on Polymarket
End of Beginning – Djo
83.8%
Polymarket 83.8%live, just nowBest Yes 84.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
End of Beginning – Djo
Price
83.8%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
84.1¢
Sell Yes
83.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$78K
Trade this on Polymarket
I’m The Problem
73%
Kalshi 73%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Kalshi
Contract
I’m The Problem
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$28K
Trade this on Kalshi
Debí Tirar Más FotosArb
36.9%
Polymarket 92.5%polled, 29s agoKalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Debí Tirar Más Fotos
Last price
92.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 91¢ nets 9000 bps before fees.

Babydoll – Dominic Fike
13.7%
Polymarket 13.7%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 13.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $719 (7.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Babydoll – Dominic Fike
Last price
13.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13.9¢
Sell Yes
13.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$719 (7.19x)
Volume
$67K
Trade this on Polymarket
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
ARIRANG
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
ARIRANG
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Taylor Swift
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
4.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Volume
$72K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Romantic - Bruno Mars
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 5.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,724 (17.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Romantic - Bruno Mars
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.8¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,724 (17.2x)
Volume
$823
Trade this on Polymarket
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love
3.2%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 47 more outcomes
Arirang - BTS
2.5%
Polymarket 2.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arirang - BTS
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Polymarket
Iceman
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iceman
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Great Divide: The Last Of The Bugs
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Great Divide: The Last Of The Bugs
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Drake
1.9%
Polymarket 1.9%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Drake
Last price
1.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$127K
Trade this on Polymarket
Bruno Mars
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Mars
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$424K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dandelion
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dandelion
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
GNX
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
GNX
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$616
Trade this on Kalshi
HIT ME HARD AND SOFT
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
HIT ME HARD AND SOFT
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$841
Trade this on Kalshi
KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film)
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film)
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Man’s Best Friend
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Man’s Best Friend
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$764
Trade this on Kalshi
petal
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
petal
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Short n' Sweet
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Short n' Sweet
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
So Close To What
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
So Close To What
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$246
Trade this on Kalshi
SOS Deluxe: LANA
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
SOS Deluxe: LANA
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$264
Trade this on Kalshi
The Art of Loving
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Art of Loving
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Great Divide
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Great Divide
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$333
Trade this on Kalshi
The Life of a Showgirl
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Life of a Showgirl
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Romantic
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Romantic
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
With Heaven On Top
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
With Heaven On Top
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$943
Trade this on Kalshi
Iceman - Drake
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iceman - Drake
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Fall-Off - J-Cole
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Fall-Off - J-Cole
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$599
Trade this on Polymarket
Bully - Ye
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bully - Ye
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$495
Trade this on Polymarket
Petal - Ariana Grande
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Petal - Ariana Grande
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$476
Trade this on Polymarket
Dandelion - Ella Langley
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dandelion - Ella Langley
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$449
Trade this on Polymarket
The Great Divide - Noah Kahan
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Great Divide - Noah Kahan
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$571
Trade this on Polymarket
Beauty And A Beat – Justin Bieber & Nicki Minaj
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Beauty And A Beat – Justin Bieber & Nicki Minaj
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Polymarket
Octane - Don Toliver
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Octane - Don Toliver
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$550
Trade this on Polymarket
Cloud 9 - Megan Moroney
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cloud 9 - Megan Moroney
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$641
Trade this on Polymarket
Don't Be Dumb - A$AP Rocky
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Don't Be Dumb - A$AP Rocky
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$555
Trade this on Polymarket
Arirang - BTS
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Swim – BTS
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Polymarket
Beyoncé
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Beyoncé
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$166K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kendrick Lamar
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kendrick Lamar
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$126K
Trade this on Polymarket
Morgan Wallen
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Morgan Wallen
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$50K
Trade this on Polymarket
Sabrina Carpenter
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sabrina Carpenter
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$124K
Trade this on Polymarket
The Weeknd
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Weeknd
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$163K
Trade this on Polymarket
APT. – ROSÉ & Bruno Mars
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
APT. – ROSÉ & Bruno Mars
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$620
Trade this on Polymarket
Billie Jean – Michael Jackson
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Billie Jean – Michael Jackson
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Chappell Roan
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chappell Roan
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dai Dai – Shakira & Burna Boy
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dai Dai – Shakira & Burna Boy
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Die With A Smile – Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Die With A Smile – Lady Gaga & Bruno Mars
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Drop Dead – Olivia Rodrigo
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Drop Dead – Olivia Rodrigo
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
hate that i made you love me – Ariana Grande
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
hate that i made you love me – Ariana Grande
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Man I Need – Olivia Dean
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Man I Need – Olivia Dean
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Risk It All – Bruno Mars
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Risk It All – Bruno Mars
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Stateside – PinkPantheress & Zara Larsson
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Stateside – PinkPantheress & Zara Larsson
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
stupid song – Olivia Rodrigo
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 29s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
stupid song – Olivia Rodrigo
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$688
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Debí Tirar Más Fotos on Kalshi at 1¢, sell on Polymarket at 91¢ (9000 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Feb 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: newsroom.spotify.com, newsroom.spotify.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Spotify
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Feb 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bad Bunny
  • End of Beginning – Djo
  • I’m The Problem

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
—
Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Bad Bunny for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Top Album on Spotify U.S in 2026?". Bad Bunny leads at 90%. Next is End of Beginning – Djo at 83.8%. $2.2M has traded across 57 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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