The Prediction Markets

Top Chinese AI company this month

Closes
Oct 31, 2026, in 8 days
Traded
$18K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Xiaomi 54.4%

Next is Moonshot at 21%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Xiaomi 54.4%Moonshot 21%Alibaba 11.4%Z.ai 5.2%DeepSeek 4.4%4 others 3.6%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Xiaomi
54.4%
Kalshi 62%(54.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 62¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $161 (1.61x)
Kalshi
Contract
Xiaomi
Last price
62%
Fair, margin removed
54.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
62¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$161 (1.61x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Moonshot
21%
Kalshi 24%(21.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Moonshot
Last price
24%
Fair, margin removed
21.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Alibaba
11.4%
Kalshi 13%(11.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alibaba
Last price
13%
Fair, margin removed
11.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Z.ai
5.2%
Kalshi 6%(5.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Z.ai
Last price
6%
Fair, margin removed
5.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$953
Trade this on Kalshi
DeepSeek
4.4%
Kalshi 5%(4.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
DeepSeek
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$345
Trade this on Kalshi
Baidu
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Baidu
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$387
Trade this on Kalshi
ByteDance
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
ByteDance
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$121
Trade this on Kalshi
MiniMax
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
MiniMax
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$441
Trade this on Kalshi
Tencent
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tencent
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$337
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Control)

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Xiaomi
  • Moonshot
  • Alibaba

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Top Chinese AI company this month". Xiaomi leads at 54.4%. Next is Moonshot at 21%. $18K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 31, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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