The Prediction Markets

Top Fantasy Rookie QB

Closes
Jan 18, 2027, in 3 months
Traded
$3K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Carson Beck 60%

Next is Cole Payton at 59%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Carson Beck
60%
Kalshi 60%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Carson Beck
Last price
60%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$692
Trade this on Kalshi
Cole Payton
59%
Kalshi 59%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 60¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cole Payton
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Athan Kaliakmanis
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Athan Kaliakmanis
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Fernando Mendoza
46%
Kalshi 46%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fernando Mendoza
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
46¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$777
Trade this on Kalshi
Cade Klubnik
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Cade Klubnik
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$493
Trade this on Kalshi
Behren Morton
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Behren Morton
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Drew Allar
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Drew Allar
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$614
Trade this on Kalshi
Garrett Nussmeier
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Garrett Nussmeier
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Taylen Green
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Taylen Green
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$353
Trade this on Kalshi
Ty Simpson
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 52s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ty Simpson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$43
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Sleeper

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Carson Beck
  • Cole Payton
  • Athan Kaliakmanis

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Top Fantasy Rookie QB". Carson Beck leads at 60%. Next is Cole Payton at 59%. $3K has traded across 10 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 18, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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