The Prediction Markets

Top Spotify Album 2026

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$115K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Debi Tirar Mas Fotos 81%

Next is you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love at 3.3%. The venues differ most on Debi Tirar Mas Fotos (Polymarket 92%, Kalshi 89%), a 3.0-point gap.

Debi Tirar Mas Fotos 81%you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love 3.3%ARIRANG 2.7%The Great Divide: The Last Of The Bugs 2.2%The Romantic 1.3%14 others 9.5%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Debi Tirar Mas Fotos
81%
Polymarket 92%(82.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoKalshi 89%(77.7% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
Debí Tirar Más Fotos
Last price
92%
Fair, margin removed
82.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS
Last price
89%
Fair, margin removed
77.7%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 90¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 90¢.

you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love
3.3%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%(4.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$923
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 5¢.

ARIRANG
2.7%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%(4.4% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,564 (25.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arirang - BTS
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,564 (25.6x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
ARIRANG
Last price
5%
Fair, margin removed
4.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3.9¢.

The Great Divide: The Last Of The Bugs
2.2%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Great Divide: The Last Of The Bugs
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
The Romantic
1.3%
Polymarket 3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Romantic - Bruno Mars
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
5.4¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,852 (18.5x)
Volume
$823
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Romantic
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

petalArb
1.2%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Petal - Ariana Grande
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$476
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
petal
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 1¢ nets 10 bps before fees.

DINASTÍA
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
DINASTÍA
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$116
Trade this on Kalshi
Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film)
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film)
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Art of Loving
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Art of Loving
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$204
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
The Life of a Showgirl
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Life of a Showgirl
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dandelion
0.8%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dandelion - Ella Langley
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$449
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Dandelion
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Iceman
0.7%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Iceman - Drake
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Iceman
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

The Fall-Off - J-Cole
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Fall-Off - J-Cole
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$599
Trade this on Polymarket
The Great Divide
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Great Divide - Noah Kahan
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$571
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Great Divide
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Bully - Ye
0.5%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bully - Ye
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$495
Trade this on Polymarket
Octane - Don Toliver
0.3%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Octane - Don Toliver
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$550
Trade this on Polymarket
Cloud 9 - Megan Moroney
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Cloud 9 - Megan Moroney
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$641
Trade this on Polymarket
Don't Be Dumb - A$AP Rocky
0.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Don't Be Dumb - A$AP Rocky
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$555
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy petal on Polymarket at 0.9¢, sell on Kalshi at 1¢ (10 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on Spotify Wrapped for the year; Kalshi U.S. markets use the U.S. chart, global markets the global chart. Polymarket's deadline for the report may differ from Kalshi's.
  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: newsroom.spotify.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Spotify
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on Spotify Wrapped for the year; Kalshi U.S. markets use the U.S. chart, global markets the global chart. Polymarket's deadline for the report may differ from Kalshi's.
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Debi Tirar Mas Fotos
  • you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love
  • ARIRANG

Live prices for Debi Tirar Mas Fotos

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Top Spotify Album 2026". Debi Tirar Mas Fotos leads at 81%. Next is you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love at 3.3%. $115K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

Spotify releases an annual report of its most-streamed albums (see: https://newsroom.spotify.com/2024-12-04/top-songs-artists-podcasts-audiobooks-albums-trends-2024/). This market will resolve according to the most-streamed Spotify album for 2026. If Spotify does not release its top album for 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will default to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify, typically released as part of Spotify Wrapped. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Spotify. Any references to Spotify, Spotify charts, streaming data, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Spotify and Polymarket. Spotify and related marks are the property of Spotify AB and its group companies.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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