The Prediction Markets

Top Spotify Artist 2026

Closes
Dec 31, 2026, in 2 months
Traded
$2.6M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
5 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Bad Bunny 87.4%

Next is Taylor Swift at 6.3%. The venues differ most on Bad Bunny (Polymarket 89.5%, Kalshi 87%), a 2.5-point gap.

Bad Bunny 87.4%Taylor Swift 6.3%Drake 1.9%Bruno Mars 1.6%BTS 1%6 others 1.8%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

2 of 20 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 5 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Bad Bunny
87.4%
Polymarket 89.5%live, 5 h agoKalshi 87%(83.5% fair)live, 5 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bad Bunny
Price
89.5%
As of
Live feed, 5 h ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$449K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bad Bunny
Price
87%
Fair, margin removed
83.5%
As of
Live feed, 5 h ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$177K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Taylor Swift
6.3%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 7%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
5.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$72K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$150K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Drake
1.9%
Polymarket 2%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 2.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,704 (37.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Drake
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Volume
$127K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Drake
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$242K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Bruno Mars
1.6%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Mars
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$424K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Mars
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$142K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

BTS
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
BTS
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kendrick Lamar
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kendrick Lamar
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$126K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Kendrick Lamar
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Morgan Wallen
0.4%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Morgan Wallen
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$50K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Morgan Wallen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Beyonce
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Beyoncé
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$166K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Beyoncé
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Chappell Roan
0.3%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Chappell Roan
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$52K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Chappell Roan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

The Weeknd
0.3%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 5 h agoKalshi 1%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Weeknd
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$163K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Weeknd
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Prices on these venues are 5 h old, too old to show an executable spread.

Sabrina Carpenter
0.1%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 5 h agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sabrina Carpenter
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 5 h ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$124K
Trade this on Polymarket

Venue prices are 5 h old, so we are not showing a cross-venue spread. Check each venue for current prices. Find markets with fresh spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • Both settle on Spotify Wrapped for the year; Kalshi U.S. markets use the U.S. chart, global markets the global chart. Polymarket's deadline for the report may differ from Kalshi's.
  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: newsroom.spotify.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: publicly available data
Show full rule comparison
  • Both settle on Spotify Wrapped for the year; Kalshi U.S. markets use the U.S. chart, global markets the global chart. Polymarket's deadline for the report may differ from Kalshi's.
  • Trading closes Dec 31, 2026, 12:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2027, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bad Bunny
  • Taylor Swift
  • Drake

Live prices for Bad Bunny

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Top Spotify Artist 2026". Bad Bunny leads at 87.4%. Next is Taylor Swift at 6.3%. $2.6M has traded across 11 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 31, 2026.

Spotify releases an annual report of its most streamed artist (see: https://newsroom.spotify.com/2025-12-03/wrapped-top-artists-songs-albums-podcasts-audiobooks/). This market refers to the most streamed Spotify artist for 2026. This market will resolve according to the name of the artist listed by Spotify as the top artist of 2026. If Spotify does not release who their top artist for 2026 is by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify, typically released as part of Spotify Wrapped. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Spotify. Any references to Spotify, Spotify charts, streaming data, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Spotify and Polymarket. Spotify and related marks are the property of Spotify AB and its group companies.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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