The Prediction Markets

Top Spotify Artist in October?

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$2.1M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS 89%

Next is Drake at 33%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

1 of 54 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS
Last price
89%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$19K
Trade this on Kalshi
DrakeArb
33%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 84%polled, 46s agoKalshi 3%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Drake
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$314
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Drake
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$250K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Drake
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$242K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 84¢ nets 8390 bps before fees.

Bad BunnyArb
31.1%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 46s agoKalshi 88%live, just nowBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bad Bunny
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$314
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bad Bunny
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$228K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Bad Bunny
Price
88%
As of
Live feed, just now
Buy Yes
88¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$114 (1.14x)
Volume
$178K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 86¢ nets 8550 bps before fees.

Bruno MarsArb
26%
Polymarket 99.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46s agoKalshi 2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bruno Mars
Last price
99.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99.9¢
Sell Yes
99.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100 (1.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Mars
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$160K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Bruno Mars
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$142K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 99.6¢ nets 9760 bps before fees.

Taylor SwiftArb
7.2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 10%polled, 46s agoKalshi 9%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$340
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$204K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Taylor Swift
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$151K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 0.5¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 950 bps before fees.

ARIRANG
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
ARIRANG
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$923
Trade this on Kalshi
The Great Divide: The Last Of The Bugs
2.5%
Kalshi 2.5%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Great Divide: The Last Of The Bugs
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Ella Langley
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ella Langley
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$78K
Trade this on Kalshi
petal
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
petal
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 29 more outcomes
Beyoncé
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoKalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Beyoncé
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Beyoncé
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
BTS
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoKalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
BTS
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$72K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
BTS
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
Dandelion
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dandelion
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
DINASTÍA
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
DINASTÍA
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$116
Trade this on Kalshi
Djo
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Djo
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Harry Styles
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Harry Styles
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Iceman
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Iceman
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kanye West / Ye
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kanye West / Ye
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kendrick Lamar
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoKalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kendrick Lamar
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$44K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Kendrick Lamar
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film)
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
KPop Demon Hunters (Soundtrack from the Netflix Film)
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Morgan Wallen
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoKalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Morgan Wallen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$39K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Morgan Wallen
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Sabrina Carpenter
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Sabrina Carpenter
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Art of Loving
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Art of Loving
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$204
Trade this on Kalshi
The Great Divide
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Great Divide
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$50
Trade this on Kalshi
The Life of a Showgirl
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Life of a Showgirl
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Romantic
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Romantic
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Zach Bryan
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Zach Bryan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Chappell Roan
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 46s agoKalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Chappell Roan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Chappell Roan
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Weeknd
0.8%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 46s agoKalshi 1%polled, 46s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
The Weeknd
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$323
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
The Weeknd
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$49K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
The Weeknd
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Coldplay
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Coldplay
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$314
Trade this on Polymarket
Justin Bieber
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Justin Bieber
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$314
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Jackson
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Jackson
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$314
Trade this on Polymarket
Rihanna
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rihanna
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Volume
$314
Trade this on Polymarket
Shakira
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
Shakira
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$314
Trade this on Polymarket
Ariana Grande
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $33,333 (333x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ariana Grande
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$33,333 (333x)
Volume
$314
Trade this on Polymarket
Billie Eilish
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Billie Eilish
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$386
Trade this on Polymarket
Ed Sheeran
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ed Sheeran
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$413
Trade this on Polymarket
Lady Gaga
0.2%
Polymarket 0.2%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $50,000 (500x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lady Gaga
Last price
0.2%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
0.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$50,000 (500x)
Volume
$373
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Bruno Mars on Kalshi at 2¢, sell on Polymarket at 99.6¢ (9760 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Spotify, publicly available data
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 31, 2026, 11:59 PM UTC on Polymarket and Dec 31, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS
  • Drake
  • Bad Bunny

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS for this event.

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Top Spotify Artist in October?". DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS leads at 89%. Next is Drake at 33%. $2.1M has traded across 39 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 31, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed artist with the greatest number of monthly listeners according to Spotify on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. The monthly listener count is listed on each artist's public Spotify profile. Only primary artist profiles will qualify; features or collaborations under another artist profile will not count towards the featured artist's total. In the event of an exact tie for the number of monthly listeners, this market will resolve in favor of the listed artist whose name comes first in alphabetical order. If Spotify is down at the listed time on the listed date, this market will resolve based on the most recent available data. The resolution source for this market will be Spotify. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Spotify. Any references to Spotify, Spotify charts, streaming data, or any associated marks are descriptive only and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Spotify and Polymarket. Spotify and related marks are the property of Spotify AB and its group companies.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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