The Prediction Markets

Top US Netflix Movie this week?

Closed
Jun 23, 2026
Traded
$16K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Jun 23, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 125 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Maternal Instinct
76.2%
Kalshi 83%(76.1% fair)polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 83¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $120 (1.20x)
Kalshi
Contract
Maternal Instinct
Last price
83%
Fair, margin removed
76.1%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Voicemails for Isabelle
15.6%
Kalshi 17%(15.6% fair)polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Voicemails for Isabelle
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
15.6%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Bee Movie
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Bee Movie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Colors Of Evil: Black
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Colors Of Evil: Black
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$643
Trade this on Kalshi
Fast Charlie
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Fast Charlie
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$863
Trade this on Kalshi
Goat
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Goat
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$777
Trade this on Kalshi
Office Romance
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Office Romance
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
The Marked Woman
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Marked Woman
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$727
Trade this on Kalshi
The Murder of Rachel Nickell
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
The Murder of Rachel Nickell
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$514
Trade this on Kalshi
Ticket to Paradise
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Ticket to Paradise
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 3020 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Welcome Home Roscoe Jenkins
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$180
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Netflix

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Maternal Instinct
  • Voicemails for Isabelle
  • Bee Movie

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "Top US Netflix Movie this week?". Maternal Instinct last traded at 76.2%. Next is Voicemails for Isabelle at 15.6%. $16K has traded across 11 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Jun 23, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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