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ConnectingBest bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
Choosin’ Texas 78.4%
Next is SWIM at 3.4%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.
Odds by venue
Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Fair chance
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Choosin’ Texas78.4%94%78.3% fair94¢ bid, 97¢ askpolled, 24s ago97¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $103 (1.03x)Choosin’ Texas78.4%Kalshi 94%(78.3% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Choosin’ Texas
78.4%
94%
78.3% fair
94¢ bid, 97¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
97¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Choosin’ Texas
78.4%
Kalshi 94%(78.3% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Choosin’ Texas
- Last price
- 94%
- Fair, margin removed
- 78.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 97¢
- Sell Yes
- 94¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $103 (1.03x)
- Volume
- $7K
SWIM3.4%4%3.3% fair— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 24s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)SWIM3.4%Kalshi 4%(3.3% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
SWIM
3.4%
4%
3.3% fair
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
SWIM
3.4%
Kalshi 4%(3.3% fair)polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- SWIM
- Last price
- 4%
- Fair, margin removed
- 3.3%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $2K
A Bar Song (Tipsy)0.9%1%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 24s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)A Bar Song (Tipsy)0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
A Bar Song (Tipsy)
0.9%
1%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
A Bar Song (Tipsy)
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- A Bar Song (Tipsy)
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $10K
Babydoll0.9%1%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 24s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Babydoll0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Babydoll
0.9%
1%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Babydoll
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Babydoll
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $9K
Beauty and a Beat0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 24s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Beauty and a Beat0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Beauty and a Beat
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Beauty and a Beat
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Beauty and a Beat
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $6K
Billie Jean0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 24s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Billie Jean0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Billie Jean
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Billie Jean
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Billie Jean
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $6K
BIRDS OF A FEATHER0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 24s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)BIRDS OF A FEATHER0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
BIRDS OF A FEATHER
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
BIRDS OF A FEATHER
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- BIRDS OF A FEATHER
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
Die With a Smile0.9%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 24s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Die With a Smile0.9%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Die With a Smile
0.9%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Die With a Smile
0.9%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Die With a Smile
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
drop dead0.8%1%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 24s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)drop dead0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
drop dead
0.8%
1%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
drop dead
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- drop dead
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $195
DtMF0.8%1%— bid, 3¢ askpolled, 24s ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)DtMF0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
DtMF
0.8%
1%
— bid, 3¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
DtMF
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- DtMF
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $195
Show 14 more outcomesHide 14 outcomes
End of Beginning0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 24s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)End of Beginning0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
End of Beginning
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
End of Beginning
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- End of Beginning
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
Golden0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 24s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Golden0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Golden
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Golden
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Golden
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $386
hate that i made you love me0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 24s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)hate that i made you love me0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
hate that i made you love me
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
hate that i made you love me
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- hate that i made you love me
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
I Just Might0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 24s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)I Just Might0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
I Just Might
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
I Just Might
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- I Just Might
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
I Knew It, I Knew You0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 24s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)I Knew It, I Knew You0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
I Knew It, I Knew You
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
I Knew It, I Knew You
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- I Knew It, I Knew You
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $195
I’m the Problem0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 24s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)I’m the Problem0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
I’m the Problem
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
I’m the Problem
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- I’m the Problem
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $3K
Janice STFU0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 24s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Janice STFU0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Janice STFU
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Janice STFU
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Janice STFU
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Lose Control0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 24s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Lose Control0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Lose Control
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Lose Control
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Lose Control
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
luther0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 24s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)luther0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
luther
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
luther
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- luther
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $2K
Man I Need0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 24s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Man I Need0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Man I Need
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Man I Need
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Man I Need
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $191
No One Noticed0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 24s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)No One Noticed0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
No One Noticed
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
No One Noticed
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- No One Noticed
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $4K
Not Like Us0.8%1%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 24s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Not Like Us0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Not Like Us
0.8%
1%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Not Like Us
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Not Like Us
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Ordinary0.8%1%— bid, 4¢ askpolled, 24s ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Ordinary0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Ordinary
0.8%
1%
— bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Ordinary
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Ordinary
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $981
Stateside + Zara Larsson0.8%1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 24s ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Stateside + Zara Larsson0.8%Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Stateside + Zara Larsson
0.8%
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Stateside + Zara Larsson
0.8%
Kalshi 1%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Stateside + Zara Larsson
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $6K
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Billboard
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Choosin’ Texas
- SWIM
- A Bar Song (Tipsy)
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (culture rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Top U.S. Streamed Song (On-Demand Audio): 2026". Choosin’ Texas leads at 78.4%. Next is SWIM at 3.4%. $84K has traded across 24 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 26, 2027.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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