The Prediction Markets

Torino FC vs AC Monza: 1st Half Correct Score

Starts in 17 hKickoff
Traded
$4K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Draw 1H 0-0 30.5%

Next is Torino FC wins 1H 1-0 at 19.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Draw 1H 0-0
30.5%
Kalshi 30.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Draw 1H 0-0
Last price
30.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Torino FC wins 1H 1-0
19.5%
Kalshi 19.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Torino FC wins 1H 1-0
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Any Other Score
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Any Other Score
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 1 - 1 AC Monza
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 1 - 1 AC Monza
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$407
Trade this on Polymarket
AC Monza wins 1H 1-0
13.5%
Kalshi 13.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
AC Monza wins 1H 1-0
Last price
13.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Torino FC 1 - 0 AC Monza
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 1 - 0 AC Monza
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$596
Trade this on Polymarket
Draw 1H 1-1
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Draw 1H 1-1
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Torino FC 3 - 5 AC Monza
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 3 - 5 AC Monza
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 5 - 4 AC Monza
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 5 - 4 AC Monza
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 2 - 1 AC Monza
9.5%
Polymarket 9.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 2 - 1 AC Monza
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$191
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 42 more outcomes
Torino FC 5 - 3 AC Monza
9%
Polymarket 9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 5 - 3 AC Monza
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 4 - 5 AC Monza
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 4 - 5 AC Monza
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 0 - 1 AC Monza
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 0 - 1 AC Monza
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$163
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 2 - 0 AC Monza
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 2 - 0 AC Monza
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$718
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 5 - 5 AC Monza
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 5 - 5 AC Monza
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$202
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 0 - 0 AC Monza
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 0 - 0 AC Monza
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 1 - 2 AC Monza
7%
Polymarket 7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 1 - 2 AC Monza
Last price
7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 2 - 2 AC Monza
6.1%
Polymarket 6.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,613 (16.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 2 - 2 AC Monza
Last price
6.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
5.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC wins 1H 2-0
5.5%
Kalshi 5.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Torino FC wins 1H 2-0
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Torino FC 0 - 2 AC Monza
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 0 - 2 AC Monza
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 3 - 1 AC Monza
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 3 - 1 AC Monza
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 4 - 4 AC Monza
4.5%
Polymarket 4.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 4 - 4 AC Monza
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 3 - 0 AC Monza
3.8%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 3 - 0 AC Monza
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 3 - 2 AC Monza
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 3 - 2 AC Monza
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 1 - 3 AC Monza
2.4%
Polymarket 2.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 1 - 3 AC Monza
Last price
2.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
2.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 2 - 3 AC Monza
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 2 - 3 AC Monza
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Trade this on Polymarket
AC Monza wins 1H 2-0
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
AC Monza wins 1H 2-0
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Torino FC wins 1H 2-1
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Torino FC wins 1H 2-1
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Torino FC 0 - 3 AC Monza
1.6%
Polymarket 1.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 0 - 3 AC Monza
Last price
1.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Trade this on Polymarket
AC Monza wins 1H 2-1
1.5%
Kalshi 1.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
AC Monza wins 1H 2-1
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Torino FC 4 - 1 AC Monza
1.5%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,882 (58.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 4 - 1 AC Monza
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.7¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,882 (58.8x)
Volume
$95
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 4 - 0 AC Monza
1.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 4 - 0 AC Monza
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 4 - 2 AC Monza
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,250 (62.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 4 - 2 AC Monza
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.6¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,250 (62.5x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 3 - 3 AC Monza
1.1%
Polymarket 1.1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 3 - 3 AC Monza
Last price
1.1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC wins 1H 3-0
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Torino FC wins 1H 3-0
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Torino FC 2 - 5 AC Monza
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $5,556 (55.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 2 - 5 AC Monza
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,556 (55.6x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 1 - 4 AC Monza
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $8,333 (83.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 1 - 4 AC Monza
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 0 - 5 AC Monza
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 0 - 5 AC Monza
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 1 - 5 AC Monza
0.7%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,692 (76.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 1 - 5 AC Monza
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.3¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$7,692 (76.9x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 5 - 0 AC Monza
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $11,111 (111x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 5 - 0 AC Monza
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.9¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$11,111 (111x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 0 - 4 AC Monza
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 0 - 4 AC Monza
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 2 - 4 AC Monza
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $12,500 (125x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 2 - 4 AC Monza
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.8¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$12,500 (125x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
AC Monza wins 1H 3-0
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
AC Monza wins 1H 3-0
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
AC Monza wins 1H 3-1
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
AC Monza wins 1H 3-1
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
AC Monza wins 1H 3-2
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
AC Monza wins 1H 3-2
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Draw 1H 2-2
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Draw 1H 2-2
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Torino FC 5 - 1 AC Monza
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 5 - 1 AC Monza
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC wins 1H 3-1
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Torino FC wins 1H 3-1
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Torino FC wins 1H 3-2
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Torino FC wins 1H 3-2
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Torino FC 4 - 3 AC Monza
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 4 - 3 AC Monza
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 5 - 2 AC Monza
0.4%
Polymarket 0.4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $14,286 (143x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 5 - 2 AC Monza
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$14,286 (143x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
Torino FC 3 - 4 AC Monza
0.3%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 0.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $16,667 (167x)
Polymarket
Contract
Torino FC 3 - 4 AC Monza
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
0.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$16,667 (167x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: legaseriea.it
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: FIFA

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Draw 1H 0-0
  • Torino FC wins 1H 1-0
  • Any Other Score

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Draw 1H 0-0 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Torino FC vs AC Monza: 1st Half Correct Score". Draw 1H 0-0 leads at 30.5%. Next is Torino FC wins 1H 1-0 at 19.5%. $4K has traded across 52 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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