The Prediction Markets

Toronto vs Washington: Winning Margin

Closes
Oct 25, 2026, in 2 days
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Toronto wins by 6-10 points 20.9%

Next is Toronto wins by 11-20 points at 20.9%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Toronto wins by 6-10 points 20.9%Toronto wins by 11-20 points 20.9%Toronto wins by 21+ points 16.8%Washington wins by 6-10 points 11.5%Toronto wins by 1-5 points 10.5%3 others 19.4%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Toronto wins by 6-10 points
20.9%
Kalshi 20%(20.9% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toronto wins by 6-10 points
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
20.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$352
Trade this on Kalshi
Toronto wins by 11-20 points
20.9%
Kalshi 20%(20.9% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toronto wins by 11-20 points
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
20.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$138
Trade this on Kalshi
Toronto wins by 21+ points
16.8%
Kalshi 16%(16.8% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toronto wins by 21+ points
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
16.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$530
Trade this on Kalshi
Washington wins by 6-10 points
11.5%
Kalshi 11%(11.5% fair)polled, 32s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Washington wins by 6-10 points
Last price
11%
Fair, margin removed
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$160
Trade this on Kalshi
Toronto wins by 1-5 points
10.5%
Kalshi 10%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Toronto wins by 1-5 points
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$264
Trade this on Kalshi
Washington wins by 11-20 points
9.4%
Kalshi 9%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Washington wins by 11-20 points
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Washington wins by 1-5 points
7.9%
Kalshi 7.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
Contract
Washington wins by 1-5 points
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Washington wins by 21+ points
2.1%
Kalshi 2%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Washington wins by 21+ points
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: the Governing League, ESPN

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Toronto wins by 6-10 points
  • Toronto wins by 11-20 points
  • Toronto wins by 21+ points

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Toronto vs Washington: Winning Margin". Toronto wins by 6-10 points leads at 20.9%. Next is Toronto wins by 11-20 points at 20.9%. $1K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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