The Prediction Markets

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)

Closes
Oct 27, 2026, in 4 days
Traded
$17.6M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 150 97%

Next is Above 160 at 95%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 150
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 150
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 160
95%
Kalshi 95%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 160
Last price
95%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 170
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 170
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 180
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 180
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 185
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 185
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 190
45%
Kalshi 45%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 190
Last price
45%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 195
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 195
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
36¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 200
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 200
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
December 31
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$1.9M
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 205
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 205
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 4 more outcomes
November 30
10.5%
Polymarket 10.5%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
November 30
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$115K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 210
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 210
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 220
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 220
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
October 31
2.2%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 15s agoBest Yes 2.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,000 (40.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
October 31
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.5¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,000 (40.0x)
Volume
$1.5M
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: portwatch.imf.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: IMF PortWatch

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 150
  • Above 160
  • Above 170

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 150 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)". Above 150 leads at 97%. Next is Above 160 at 95%. $17.6M has traded across 14 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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