The Prediction Markets

Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)

Closes
Nov 3, 2026, in 10 days
Traded
$180K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 170 94%

Next is Above 180 at 82%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 170
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 170
Last price
94%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 180
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 180
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 185
77%
Kalshi 77%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 79¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 185
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 190
60.5%
Kalshi 60.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 68¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 190
Last price
60.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 195
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 195
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 200
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 200
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
25¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 205
22.5%
Kalshi 22.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 205
Last price
22.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 210
10.5%
Kalshi 10.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 210
Last price
10.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 220
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 220
Last price
6%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$21
Trade this on Kalshi
Yes
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
2.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$178K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: IMF PortWatch

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 170
  • Above 180
  • Above 185

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 170 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)". Above 170 leads at 94%. Next is Above 180 at 82%. $180K has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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