The Prediction Markets

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/19 - 10/25)

Closes
Oct 27, 2026, in 4 days
Traded
$19.6M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
6 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 15 98%

Next is Above 20 at 90%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 6 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 15
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15
Last price
98%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
97¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$38K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Volume
$42K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 25
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 25
Last price
48%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 27
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 27
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 30
10%
Kalshi 10%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 30
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Kalshi
Yes
7.3%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 6 h agoPolymarket 0.9%polled, 6 h agoPolymarket 5.5%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$15.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3.0M
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$960K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 35
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 35
Last price
3%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$31K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 40
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 40
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 50
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 6 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 50
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 6 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: portwatch.imf.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: IMF PortWatch

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 15
  • Above 20
  • Above 25

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 15 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/19 - 10/25)". Above 15 leads at 98%. Next is Above 20 at 90%. $19.6M has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 27, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets