The Prediction Markets

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1)

Closes
Nov 3, 2026, in 10 days
Traded
$19.5M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 15 90%

Next is Above 20 at 79%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Above 15
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 15
Last price
90%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 20
79%
Kalshi 79%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 20
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 23
63.5%
Kalshi 63.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 23
Last price
63.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 25
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 25
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 27
30%
Kalshi 30%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 27
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 30
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 30
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 35
16%
Kalshi 16%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 35
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Yes
7.2%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 0.4%polled, 58s agoPolymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $25,000 (250x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$15.4M
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
0.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.4¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$25,000 (250x)
Volume
$3.1M
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Yes
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$971K
Trade this on Polymarket
Above 40
6.5%
Kalshi 6.5%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 40
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 50
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 58s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 50
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: portwatch.imf.org
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: IMF PortWatch

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 15
  • Above 20
  • Above 23

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Above 15 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/26 - 11/1)". Above 15 leads at 90%. Next is Above 20 at 79%. $19.5M has traded across 10 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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