The Prediction Markets

Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)

Closes
Nov 3, 2026, in 10 days
Traded
$2K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above 260 94%

Next is Above 270 at 91%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 260
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 95¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 260
Last price
94%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 270
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 270
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 280
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 280
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 290
65.5%
Kalshi 65.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 290
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
61¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 300
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 53¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 300
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
45¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 310
25.5%
Kalshi 25.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 310
Last price
25.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
24¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 320
16.5%
Kalshi 16.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 320
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 330
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,250 (12.5x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 330
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$381
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: IMF PortWatch

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 260
  • Above 270
  • Above 280

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)". Above 260 leads at 94%. Next is Above 270 at 91%. $2K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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