The Prediction Markets

Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 30?

Closes
Oct 31, 2026, in 7 days
Traded
$529K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

36.0+ 95.4%

Next is 37.0+ at 83.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
36.0+
95.4%
Polymarket 95.4%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 95.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
36.0+
Last price
95.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
95.7¢
Sell Yes
95¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$628
Trade this on Polymarket
37.0+
83.5%
Polymarket 83.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
37.0+
Last price
83.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$508
Trade this on Polymarket
Below 36%
81%
Kalshi 81%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 36%
Last price
81%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$88K
Trade this on Kalshi
38.0+
73%
Polymarket 73%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 81¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $123 (1.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
38.0+
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$80
Trade this on Polymarket
Below 35%
39%
Kalshi 39%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 39¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $256 (2.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 35%
Last price
39%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
39¢
Sell Yes
37¢
$100 on Yes pays
$256 (2.56x)
Volume
$67K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 34%
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 34%
Last price
21%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$43K
Trade this on Kalshi
39.0+
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
39.0+
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$454
Trade this on Polymarket
40.0+
11.5%
Polymarket 11.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 12.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $800 (8.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
40.0+
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12.5¢
Sell Yes
10.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$800 (8.00x)
Volume
$761
Trade this on Polymarket
Below 33%
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 33%
Last price
11%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$70K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 43%
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 43%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$58K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 9 more outcomes
Above 44%
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 44%
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
4.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 45%
4.3%
Kalshi 4.3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 45%
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
4.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 50%
3.8%
Kalshi 3.8%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 3.8¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,632 (26.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 50%
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.8¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,632 (26.3x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 48%
3.7%
Kalshi 3.7%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4.2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,381 (23.8x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 48%
Last price
3.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 49%
3.3%
Kalshi 3.3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5.6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,786 (17.9x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 49%
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.6¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,786 (17.9x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 46%
2.6%
Kalshi 2.6%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 46%
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 47%
2.1%
Kalshi 2.1%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 47%
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 37.4%
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 37.4%
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$30K
Trade this on Kalshi
41.0+
1.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $7,143 (71.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
41.0+
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$326
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: VoteHub, VoteHub

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 36.0+
  • 37.0+
  • Below 36%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 36.0+ for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Trump approval rating at least ___ on October 30?". 36.0+ leads at 95.4%. Next is 37.0+ at 83.5%. $529K has traded across 19 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling is equal to or higher than the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on October 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date. Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after this time will not be considered, except for corrections of data integrity issues as described below. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolling calculates its average will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where RealClearPolling differs from alternative sources. If the RCP Average is unavailable at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the resolution date. If the RCP Average has not been updated by then, the most recent RCP Average published prior to 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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