The Prediction Markets

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

Closes
Jan 1, 2027, in 2 months
Traded
$4.4M
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Before Jan 1, 2028 66%

Next is Before Oct 1, 2027 at 63%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2028
66%
Kalshi 66%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2028
Last price
66%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
65¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$1.2M
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Oct 1, 2027
63%
Kalshi 63%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 64¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $156 (1.56x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Oct 1, 2027
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
64¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$156 (1.56x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
December 31, 2027
63%
Polymarket 63%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2027
Last price
63%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
54¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Aug 1, 2027
54%
Kalshi 54%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Aug 1, 2027
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
June 30, 2027
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 56¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Polymarket
Contract
June 30, 2027
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Before Jul 1, 2027
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jul 1, 2027
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jun 1, 2027
43%
Kalshi 43%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 43¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $233 (2.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jun 1, 2027
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before May 1, 2027
40%
Kalshi 40%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 40¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $250 (2.50x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before May 1, 2027
Last price
40%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
39¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Apr 1, 2027
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Apr 1, 2027
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$971
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Mar 1, 2027
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Mar 1, 2027
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$403K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 3 more outcomes
Before Feb 1, 2027
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Feb 1, 2027
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2027
3.5%
Kalshi 3.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Before Jan 1, 2027
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
3.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$1.6M
Trade this on Kalshi
December 31, 2026
2.1%
Polymarket 2.1%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
December 31, 2026
Last price
2.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
1.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$1.1M
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Library of Congress

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Before Jan 1, 2028
  • Before Oct 1, 2027
  • December 31, 2027

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Before Jan 1, 2028 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Trump impeached by end of 2026?". Before Jan 1, 2028 leads at 66%. Next is Before Oct 1, 2027 at 63%. $4.4M has traded across 13 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Jan 1, 2027.

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets