The Prediction Markets

Trump Truth Social posts this week? (10/18-10/24)

Full timeKickoff Waiting for the venues to settle
Traded
$213K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

240 80%

Next is 200+ at 63.7%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
240
80%
Kalshi 80%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
240
Last price
80%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Volume
$35K
Trade this on Kalshi
200+
63.7%
Polymarket 74%polled, 21s agoPolymarket 48.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
200+
Last price
74%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
78¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$128 (1.28x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
200+
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Strategic / Strategy
58.5%
Polymarket 58.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 89¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $112 (1.12x)
Polymarket
Contract
Strategic / Strategy
Last price
58.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$136
Trade this on Polymarket
Ceasefire / Uranium
45.5%
Polymarket 45.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ceasefire / Uranium
Last price
45.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$181
Trade this on Polymarket
Four More Years
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Polymarket
Contract
Four More Years
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$150
Trade this on Polymarket
Allah
42.5%
Polymarket 42.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Allah
Last price
42.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$158
Trade this on Polymarket
Vanilla / Ice Cream
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Vanilla / Ice Cream
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Polymarket
Six Seven
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Six Seven
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$879
Trade this on Polymarket
Flying Car / Roadster
26%
Polymarket 26%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Flying Car / Roadster
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
18%
Polymarket 18%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$991
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 13 more outcomes
220-240
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
220-240
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
180-199Arb
9.3%
Polymarket 19.5%polled, 21s agoPolymarket 15.5%polled, 21s agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
180-199
Last price
19.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
180-199
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
180-199
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$20K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 18¢ nets 1700 bps before fees.

160-179Arb
5.5%
Polymarket 5.4%polled, 21s agoPolymarket 14.5%polled, 21s agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
160-179
Last price
5.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
160-179
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
160-179
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$25K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 12¢ nets 1100 bps before fees.

140-159Arb
3.3%
Polymarket 1.3%polled, 21s agoPolymarket 10%polled, 21s agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
140-159
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
1.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
140-159
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
140-159
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 9¢ nets 800 bps before fees.

200-219
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
200-219
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$22K
Trade this on Kalshi
120-139Arb
2.2%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 21s agoPolymarket 5.5%polled, 21s agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
120-139
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
0.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
120-139
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
120-139
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 4¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

100-119Arb
2%
Polymarket 0.3%polled, 21s agoPolymarket 5.5%polled, 21s agoKalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $20,000 (200x)
Polymarket
Contract
100-119
Last price
0.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$20,000 (200x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
100-119
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
100-119
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 4¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

80-99
1.4%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoPolymarket 3.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
80-99
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
80-99
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$928
Trade this on Polymarket
100
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
100
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
20-39
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
20-39
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$887
Trade this on Polymarket
40-59
0.6%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
40-59
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$559
Trade this on Polymarket
60-79
0.5%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
60-79
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$413
Trade this on Polymarket
20
0.1%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 21s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
20
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$700
Trade this on Polymarket

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy 180-199 on Kalshi at 1¢, sell on Polymarket at 18¢ (1700 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 25, 2026, 1:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: truthsocial.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Roll Call
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Oct 27, 2026, 4:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 25, 2026, 1:59 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 240
  • 200+
  • Strategic / Strategy

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list 240 for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Trump Truth Social posts this week? (10/18-10/24)". 240 leads at 80%. Next is 200+ at 63.7%. $213K has traded across 23 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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