The Prediction Markets

Trump's approval rating on Oct 23, 2026?

Closes
Oct 23, 2026, in 18 hours
Traded
$274K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
12 h ago
Share

What the markets expect

36% 77%

Next is 35% at 29.5%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 12 h ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
36%
77%
Polymarket 77%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
36%
Last price
77%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
35%
29.5%
Polymarket 29.5%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
35%
Last price
29.5%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Volume
$120K
Trade this on Polymarket
38.4 to 38.6
29%
Kalshi 29%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 30¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Kalshi
Contract
38.4 to 38.6
Last price
29%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
38.1 to 38.3
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
38.1 to 38.3
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$29K
Trade this on Kalshi
47%
15.2%
Polymarket 15.2%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 28¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $357 (3.57x)
Polymarket
Contract
47%
Last price
15.2%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$480
Trade this on Polymarket
38.7 to 38.9
15%
Kalshi 15%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
38.7 to 38.9
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
34%
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
34%
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
13¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$245
Trade this on Polymarket
37.8 to 38.0
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
Contract
37.8 to 38.0
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Kalshi
Below 37.8
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Below 37.8
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Kalshi
46%
10.8%
Polymarket 10.8%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 18.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $529 (5.29x)
Polymarket
Contract
46%
Last price
10.8%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
18.9¢
Sell Yes
2.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$529 (5.29x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 11 more outcomes
45%
6.2%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 8.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,124 (11.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
45%
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
8.9¢
Sell Yes
3.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,124 (11.2x)
Volume
$384
Trade this on Polymarket
48%
6.2%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 9.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,031 (10.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
48%
Last price
6.2%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
9.7¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,031 (10.3x)
Volume
$792
Trade this on Polymarket
44%
5.6%
Polymarket 5.6%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 8.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,205 (12.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
44%
Last price
5.6%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
8.3¢
Sell Yes
2.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,205 (12.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
30%
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
30%
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
49%
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
49%
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
2.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$689
Trade this on Polymarket
50%
4.6%
Polymarket 4.6%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 6.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,493 (14.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
50%
Last price
4.6%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
6.7¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,493 (14.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
25%
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 4.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,174 (21.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
25%
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
4.6¢
Sell Yes
2.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,174 (21.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
20%
3.3%
Polymarket 3.3%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
Contract
20%
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
4.8¢
Sell Yes
1.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,083 (20.8x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
39.0 to 39.2
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
39.0 to 39.2
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 39.5
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 39.5
Last price
2%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Kalshi
39.3 to 39.5
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 12 h agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
39.3 to 39.5
Last price
1%
As of
Polled 12 h ago
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: natesilver.net
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: RealClearPolitics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • 36%
  • 35%
  • 38.4 to 38.6

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list 36% for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Trump's approval rating on Oct 23, 2026?". 36% leads at 77%. Next is 35% at 29.5%. $274K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 23, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More politics markets

See all politics markets