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ConnectingBest bid
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…
What the markets expect
36% 80%
Next is 35% at 29%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
36%80%80%78¢ bid, 82¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed82¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $122 (1.22x)36%80%Polymarket 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
36%
80%
80%
78¢ bid, 82¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
82¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $122 (1.22x)
36%
80%
Polymarket 80%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 82¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $122 (1.22x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 36%
- Last price
- 80%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 82¢
- Sell Yes
- 78¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $122 (1.22x)
- Volume
- $3K
35%29%29%27¢ bid, 31¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed31¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $323 (3.23x)35%29%Polymarket 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
35%
29%
29%
27¢ bid, 31¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
31¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $323 (3.23x)
35%
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 35%
- Last price
- 29%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 31¢
- Sell Yes
- 27¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $323 (3.23x)
- Volume
- $121K
38.6 to 38.825%Not listed25%24¢ bid, 26¢ askpolled, 2 min ago26¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $385 (3.85x)38.6 to 38.825%Kalshi 25%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
38.6 to 38.8
25%
Not listed
25%
24¢ bid, 26¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
26¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $385 (3.85x)
38.6 to 38.8
25%
Kalshi 25%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 26¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $385 (3.85x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 38.6 to 38.8
- Last price
- 25%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 26¢
- Sell Yes
- 24¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $385 (3.85x)
- Volume
- $147
38.3 to 38.522%Not listed22%19¢ bid, 22¢ askpolled, 2 min ago22¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $455 (4.55x)38.3 to 38.522%Kalshi 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
38.3 to 38.5
22%
Not listed
22%
19¢ bid, 22¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
22¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $455 (4.55x)
38.3 to 38.5
22%
Kalshi 22%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 38.3 to 38.5
- Last price
- 22%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 19¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $295
47%15.2%15.2%2.2¢ bid, 28.1¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed28.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $356 (3.56x)47%15.2%Polymarket 15.2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 28.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $356 (3.56x)
47%
15.2%
15.2%
2.2¢ bid, 28.1¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
28.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $356 (3.56x)
47%
15.2%
Polymarket 15.2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 28.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $356 (3.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 47%
- Last price
- 15.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 28.1¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $356 (3.56x)
- Volume
- $480
34%14%14%13¢ bid, 15¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed15¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $667 (6.67x)34%14%Polymarket 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
34%
14%
14%
13¢ bid, 15¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
15¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $667 (6.67x)
34%
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 34%
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 15¢
- Sell Yes
- 13¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $667 (6.67x)
- Volume
- $265
39.2 to 39.413%Not listed13%10¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 2 min ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)39.2 to 39.413%Kalshi 13%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
39.2 to 39.4
13%
Not listed
13%
10¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
39.2 to 39.4
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 39.2 to 39.4
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $49
38.9 to 39.112%Not listed12%12¢ bid, 16¢ askpolled, 2 min ago16¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $625 (6.25x)38.9 to 39.112%Kalshi 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
38.9 to 39.1
12%
Not listed
12%
12¢ bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
16¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $625 (6.25x)
38.9 to 39.1
12%
Kalshi 12%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 38.9 to 39.1
- Last price
- 12%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $364
46%10.4%10.4%2.7¢ bid, 18¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed18¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $556 (5.56x)46%10.4%Polymarket 10.4%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
46%
10.4%
10.4%
2.7¢ bid, 18¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
18¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $556 (5.56x)
46%
10.4%
Polymarket 10.4%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 46%
- Last price
- 10.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 18¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $556 (5.56x)
- Volume
- $1K
38.0 to 38.29%Not listed9%7¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 2 min ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)38.0 to 38.29%Kalshi 9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
38.0 to 38.2
9%
Not listed
9%
7¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
38.0 to 38.2
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 38.0 to 38.2
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $231
Show 11 more outcomesHide 11 outcomes
45%8.4%8.4%2.9¢ bid, 13.9¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed13.9¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $719 (7.19x)45%8.4%Polymarket 8.4%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 13.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $719 (7.19x)
45%
8.4%
8.4%
2.9¢ bid, 13.9¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
13.9¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $719 (7.19x)
45%
8.4%
Polymarket 8.4%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 13.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $719 (7.19x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 45%
- Last price
- 8.4%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 13.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $719 (7.19x)
- Volume
- $404
48%6.2%6.2%2.1¢ bid, 10.3¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed10.3¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $971 (9.71x)48%6.2%Polymarket 6.2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 10.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $971 (9.71x)
48%
6.2%
6.2%
2.1¢ bid, 10.3¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
10.3¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $971 (9.71x)
48%
6.2%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 10.3¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $971 (9.71x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 48%
- Last price
- 6.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 10.3¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $971 (9.71x)
- Volume
- $792
44%6.2%6.2%2.5¢ bid, 9.8¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed9.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)44%6.2%Polymarket 6.2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
44%
6.2%
6.2%
2.5¢ bid, 9.8¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
9.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
44%
6.2%
Polymarket 6.2%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 9.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,020 (10.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 44%
- Last price
- 6.2%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 9.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,020 (10.2x)
- Volume
- $4K
37.7 to 37.96%Not listed6%4¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 2 min ago6¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)37.7 to 37.96%Kalshi 6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
37.7 to 37.9
6%
Not listed
6%
4¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
6¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
37.7 to 37.9
6%
Kalshi 6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- 37.7 to 37.9
- Last price
- 6%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $81
30%5.5%5.5%4¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)30%5.5%Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
30%
5.5%
5.5%
4¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
30%
5.5%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 30%
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $17K
Above 39.45%Not listed5%4¢ bid, 5¢ askpolled, 2 min ago5¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)Above 39.45%Kalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 39.4
5%
Not listed
5%
4¢ bid, 5¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
5¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Above 39.4
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 5¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,000 (20.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 39.4
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,000 (20.0x)
- Volume
- $70
50%4.9%4.9%2.4¢ bid, 7.4¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed7.4¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)50%4.9%Polymarket 4.9%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
50%
4.9%
4.9%
2.4¢ bid, 7.4¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
7.4¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
50%
4.9%
Polymarket 4.9%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 7.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,351 (13.5x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 50%
- Last price
- 4.9%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,351 (13.5x)
- Volume
- $1K
49%4.8%4.8%2.6¢ bid, 7¢ askpolled, 24s agoNot listed7¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)49%4.8%Polymarket 4.8%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
49%
4.8%
4.8%
2.6¢ bid, 7¢ ask
polled, 24s ago
Not listed
7¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
49%
4.8%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 24s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 49%
- Last price
- 4.8%
- As of
- Polled just now
- Buy Yes
- 7¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,429 (14.3x)
- Volume
- $689
Below 37.74%Not listed4%1¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 2 min ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Below 37.74%Kalshi 4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Below 37.7
4%
Not listed
4%
1¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 2 min ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Below 37.7
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Below 37.7
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 2 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $104
25%3.5%3.5%2.4¢ bid, 4.5¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed4.5¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)25%3.5%Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
25%
3.5%
3.5%
2.4¢ bid, 4.5¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
4.5¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
25%
3.5%
Polymarket 3.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,222 (22.2x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 25%
- Last price
- 3.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.5¢
- Sell Yes
- 2.4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,222 (22.2x)
- Volume
- $4K
20%3.4%3.4%2¢ bid, 4.8¢ askpolled, 1 min agoNot listed4.8¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)20%3.4%Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
20%
3.4%
3.4%
2¢ bid, 4.8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
Not listed
4.8¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
20%
3.4%
Polymarket 3.4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,083 (20.8x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- 20%
- Last price
- 3.4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,083 (20.8x)
- Volume
- $3K
Who resolves this market
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle, source: natesilver.net
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: RealClearPolitics
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- 36%
- 35%
- 38.6 to 38.8
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Kalshi
Kalshi doesn’t list 36% for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "Trump's approval rating on Oct 30, 2026?". 36% leads at 80%. Next is 35% at 29%. $182K has traded across 21 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 30, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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