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Trading ended on May 18, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 158 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Kalshi
Best Yes price
Above 1.8 million99.5%99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 3815 h agoNo askAbove 1.8 million99.5%Kalshi 99.5%polled, 3815 h ago
Above 1.8 million
99.5%
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 3815 h ago
No ask
Above 1.8 million
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 3815 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 1.8 million
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled 158 d ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
Above 1.85 million99.5%99.5%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 3815 h agoNo askAbove 1.85 million99.5%Kalshi 99.5%polled, 3815 h ago
Above 1.85 million
99.5%
99.5%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 3815 h ago
No ask
Above 1.85 million
99.5%
Kalshi 99.5%polled, 3815 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 1.85 million
- Last price
- 99.5%
- As of
- Polled 158 d ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
Above 2.5 million99%99%98¢ bid, — askpolled, 3815 h agoNo askAbove 2.5 million99%Kalshi 99%polled, 3815 h ago
Above 2.5 million
99%
99%
98¢ bid, — ask
polled, 3815 h ago
No ask
Above 2.5 million
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3815 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2.5 million
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled 158 d ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 98¢
- Volume
- $2K
Above 2.45 million99%99%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 3815 h agoNo askAbove 2.45 million99%Kalshi 99%polled, 3815 h ago
Above 2.45 million
99%
99%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 3815 h ago
No ask
Above 2.45 million
99%
Kalshi 99%polled, 3815 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2.45 million
- Last price
- 99%
- As of
- Polled 158 d ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $473
Above 2.4 million98%98%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 3815 h agoNo askAbove 2.4 million98%Kalshi 98%polled, 3815 h ago
Above 2.4 million
98%
98%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 3815 h ago
No ask
Above 2.4 million
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 3815 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2.4 million
- Last price
- 98%
- As of
- Polled 158 d ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $835
Above 2.35 million97%97%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 3815 h agoNo askAbove 2.35 million97%Kalshi 97%polled, 3815 h ago
Above 2.35 million
97%
97%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 3815 h ago
No ask
Above 2.35 million
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 3815 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2.35 million
- Last price
- 97%
- As of
- Polled 158 d ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $61
Above 2.55 million94%94%91¢ bid, 94¢ askpolled, 3815 h ago94¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $106 (1.06x)Above 2.55 million94%Kalshi 94%polled, 3815 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Above 2.55 million
94%
94%
91¢ bid, 94¢ ask
polled, 3815 h ago
94¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Above 2.55 million
94%
Kalshi 94%polled, 3815 h agoBest Yes 94¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2.55 million
- Last price
- 94%
- As of
- Polled 158 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 94¢
- Sell Yes
- 91¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $106 (1.06x)
- Volume
- $5K
Above 2.3 million91%91%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 3815 h agoNo askAbove 2.3 million91%Kalshi 91%polled, 3815 h ago
Above 2.3 million
91%
91%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 3815 h ago
No ask
Above 2.3 million
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 3815 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2.3 million
- Last price
- 91%
- As of
- Polled 158 d ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $1
Above 1.9 million90%90%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 3815 h agoNo askAbove 1.9 million90%Kalshi 90%polled, 3815 h ago
Above 1.9 million
90%
90%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 3815 h ago
No ask
Above 1.9 million
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 3815 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 1.9 million
- Last price
- 90%
- As of
- Polled 158 d ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $1
Above 1.95 million90%90%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 3815 h agoNo askAbove 1.95 million90%Kalshi 90%polled, 3815 h ago
Above 1.95 million
90%
90%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 3815 h ago
No ask
Above 1.95 million
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 3815 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 1.95 million
- Last price
- 90%
- As of
- Polled 158 d ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $1
Show 11 more outcomesHide 11 outcomes
Above 2 million90%90%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 3815 h agoNo askAbove 2 million90%Kalshi 90%polled, 3815 h ago
Above 2 million
90%
90%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 3815 h ago
No ask
Above 2 million
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 3815 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2 million
- Last price
- 90%
- As of
- Polled 158 d ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $1
Above 2.1 million90%90%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 3815 h agoNo askAbove 2.1 million90%Kalshi 90%polled, 3815 h ago
Above 2.1 million
90%
90%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 3815 h ago
No ask
Above 2.1 million
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 3815 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2.1 million
- Last price
- 90%
- As of
- Polled 158 d ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $1
Above 2.2 million90%90%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 3815 h agoNo askAbove 2.2 million90%Kalshi 90%polled, 3815 h ago
Above 2.2 million
90%
90%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 3815 h ago
No ask
Above 2.2 million
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 3815 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2.2 million
- Last price
- 90%
- As of
- Polled 158 d ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $1
Above 2.05 million90%90%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 3815 h agoNo askAbove 2.05 million90%Kalshi 90%polled, 3815 h ago
Above 2.05 million
90%
90%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 3815 h ago
No ask
Above 2.05 million
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 3815 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2.05 million
- Last price
- 90%
- As of
- Polled 158 d ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $1
Above 2.15 million90%90%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 3815 h agoNo askAbove 2.15 million90%Kalshi 90%polled, 3815 h ago
Above 2.15 million
90%
90%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 3815 h ago
No ask
Above 2.15 million
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 3815 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2.15 million
- Last price
- 90%
- As of
- Polled 158 d ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $1
Above 2.25 million90%90%99¢ bid, — askpolled, 3815 h agoNo askAbove 2.25 million90%Kalshi 90%polled, 3815 h ago
Above 2.25 million
90%
90%
99¢ bid, — ask
polled, 3815 h ago
No ask
Above 2.25 million
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 3815 h ago
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2.25 million
- Last price
- 90%
- As of
- Polled 158 d ago
- Buy Yes
- —
- Sell Yes
- 99¢
- Volume
- $1
Above 2.6 million13%13%12¢ bid, 14¢ askpolled, 3815 h ago14¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $714 (7.14x)Above 2.6 million13%Kalshi 13%polled, 3815 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Above 2.6 million
13%
13%
12¢ bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 3815 h ago
14¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Above 2.6 million
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 3815 h agoBest Yes 14¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2.6 million
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled 158 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 12¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $9K
Above 2.65 million2%2%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3815 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Above 2.65 million2%Kalshi 2%polled, 3815 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Above 2.65 million
2%
2%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3815 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Above 2.65 million
2%
Kalshi 2%polled, 3815 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2.65 million
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 158 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $37
Above 2.7 million0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3815 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Above 2.7 million0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3815 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Above 2.7 million
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3815 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Above 2.7 million
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3815 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2.7 million
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 158 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Above 2.8 million0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3815 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Above 2.8 million0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3815 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Above 2.8 million
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3815 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Above 2.8 million
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3815 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2.8 million
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 158 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Above 2.75 million0.5%0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 3815 h ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Above 2.75 million0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3815 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Above 2.75 million
0.5%
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 3815 h ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Above 2.75 million
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 3815 h agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Above 2.75 million
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 158 d ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Who resolves this market
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange)
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- Above 1.8 million
- Above 1.85 million
- Above 2.5 million
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Final prediction market prices for "TSA avg check-ins from May 11 to 17, 2026?". Above 1.8 million last traded at 99.5%. Next is Above 1.85 million at 99.5%. $16K has traded across 21 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on May 18, 2026.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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