The Prediction Markets

Tsitsipas vs Duckworth

Starts in 6 minKickoff
Traded
$52K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Match O/U 22.5 89.5%

Next is Tsitsipas at 78.8%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Match O/U 22.5
89.5%
Polymarket 89.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Set 1 O/U 8.5
Last price
89.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Tsitsipas
78.8%
Polymarket 78.5%polled, 22s agoKalshi 79%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 79¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $127 (1.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth
Last price
78.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Last price
79%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
79¢
Sell Yes
78¢
$100 on Yes pays
$127 (1.27x)
Volume
$18K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 78¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 79¢.

Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Match O/U 22.5
73.5%
Polymarket 73.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 76¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $132 (1.32x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Set 2 Winner
Last price
73.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
76¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$132 (1.32x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Match O/U 22.5
71.5%
Polymarket 71.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Set 1 Winner
Last price
71.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Match O/U 22.5
64.5%
Polymarket 64.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 66¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $152 (1.52x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Match O/U 21.5
Last price
64.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
63¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$86
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Match O/U 22.5
63.5%
Polymarket 63.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Set 1 O/U 9.5
Last price
63.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$16
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Match O/U 22.5
53.5%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Match O/U 22.5
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Match O/U 22.5
53.5%
Polymarket 53.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 54¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $185 (1.85x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Set Handicap +/-1.5
Last price
53.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$354
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Match O/U 22.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 22s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Set 2 O/U 10.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Match O/U 22.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 22s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Set 2 O/U 8.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 7 more outcomes
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Match O/U 22.5
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 22s ago
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Set 2 O/U 9.5
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
—
Trade this on Polymarket
Completed Match
49%
Polymarket 49%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Polymarket
Contract
Completed Match
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Match O/U 22.5
48.5%
Polymarket 48.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Game Spread +/-3.5
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$73
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Match O/U 22.5
43.5%
Polymarket 43.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Match O/U 23.5
Last price
43.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
43¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Match O/U 22.5
41.5%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 45¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $222 (2.22x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Set 1 O/U 10.5
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$47
Trade this on Polymarket
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Match O/U 22.5
35%
Polymarket 35%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Polymarket
Contract
Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Total Sets: O/U 2.5
Last price
35%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Trade this on Polymarket
James Duckworth
21%
Kalshi 21%polled, 22s agoBest Yes 21¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $476 (4.76x)
Kalshi
Contract
James Duckworth
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Where they differ

  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: atptour.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ATP
Show full rule comparison
  • If the match is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the match does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time (tennis: not finished within two weeks); Polymarket stays open until the match is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (tennis: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi requires a ball to be played and pays the winner; Polymarket pays the player who advances, including on retirement. A pre-match walkover is a fair price on Kalshi, 50-50 on Polymarket.
  • Trading closes Oct 30, 2026, 6:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Nov 6, 2026, 6:30 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Match O/U 22.5
  • Tsitsipas
  • Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Match O/U 22.5

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Match O/U 22.5 for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Tsitsipas vs Duckworth". Almaty Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs James Duckworth Match O/U 22.5 leads at 89.5%. Next is Tsitsipas at 78.8%. $52K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 6, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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