The Prediction Markets

Turner Prize 2026 Winner

Closes
Apr 1, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$46K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
1 min ago
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What the markets expect

Kira Freije 41.1%

Next is Simeon Barclay at 20.6%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Kira Freije 41.1%Simeon Barclay 20.6%Tanoa Sasraku 19.3%Marguerite Humeau 19%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Kira Freije
41.1%
Polymarket 34%(41.1% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kira Freije
Last price
34%
Fair, margin removed
41.1%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Simeon Barclay
20.6%
Polymarket 17%(20.5% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Simeon Barclay
Last price
17%
Fair, margin removed
20.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Tanoa Sasraku
19.3%
Polymarket 16%(19.3% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tanoa Sasraku
Last price
16%
Fair, margin removed
19.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$13K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marguerite Humeau
19%
Polymarket 15.8%(19% fair)polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 15.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $633 (6.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marguerite Humeau
Last price
15.8%
Fair, margin removed
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
15.8¢
Sell Yes
15.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$633 (6.33x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: tate.org.uk

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Kira Freije
  • Simeon Barclay
  • Tanoa Sasraku

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 4 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Turner Prize 2026 Winner". Kira Freije leads at 41.1%. Next is Simeon Barclay at 20.6%. $46K has traded across 4 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 1, 2027.

The Turner Prize is awarded annually by Tate to a British artist for an outstanding exhibition or other presentation of their work. The Turner Prize 2026 shortlist was announced on April 23, 2026, and the shortlisted artists' exhibition runs at Middlesbrough Institute of Modern Art (MIMA) from September 26, 2026 to March 29, 2027. The winner is scheduled to be announced on December 10, 2026. This market will resolve according to the artist who is awarded the Turner Prize 2026. If no winner has been declared by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If multiple listed artists are jointly awarded the Turner Prize 2026, this market will resolve in favor of the winning artist whose last name comes first in alphabetical order. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Tate (https://www.tate.org.uk/) and the Turner Prize; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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