The Prediction Markets

TX-28 House election: Henry Cuellar vote percent

Closes
Nov 3, 2027, in 13 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

At least 48% 93%

Next is At least 50% at 91%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
At least 48%
93%
Kalshi 93%polled, 32s ago
Kalshi
Contract
At least 48%
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
93¢
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 50%
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 93¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $108 (1.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 50%
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
93¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$108 (1.08x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 52%
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 52%
Last price
84%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$205
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 54%
62%
Kalshi 62%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 54%
Last price
62%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$450
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 56%
52%
Kalshi 52%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 56%
Last price
52%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
40¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$600
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 58%
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 32¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $313 (3.13x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 58%
Last price
26%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
32¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$313 (3.13x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 60%
8%
Kalshi 8%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 60%
Last price
8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 62%
4.5%
Kalshi 4.5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 62%
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Kalshi
At least 64%
3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Kalshi
Contract
At least 64%
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Elections Division, Office of the Secretary of State, Austin, TX

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • At least 48%
  • At least 50%
  • At least 52%

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.04 × price × (1 − price) per share (politics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "TX-28 House election: Henry Cuellar vote percent". At least 48% leads at 93%. Next is At least 50% at 91%. $5K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 3, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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