The Prediction Markets

Uber trips in Q3

Closes
Mar 4, 2027, in 4 months
Traded
$1K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
1 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Above 3.95 billion 89%

Next is Above 4 billion at 86%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 3.95 billion
89%
Kalshi 89%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 3.95 billion
Last price
89%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
89¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$321
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4 billion
86%
Kalshi 86%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4 billion
Last price
86%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
82¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$27
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.05 billion
84%
Kalshi 84%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.05 billion
Last price
84%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.1 billion
67%
Kalshi 67%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.1 billion
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
59¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$686
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.15 billion
44%
Kalshi 44%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 52¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $192 (1.92x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.15 billion
Last price
44%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
52¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$192 (1.92x)
Volume
$261
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.2 billion
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.2 billion
Last price
35%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
28¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.25 billion
19%
Kalshi 19%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 24¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $417 (4.17x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.25 billion
Last price
19%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.3 billion
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.3 billion
Last price
9%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$36
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 4.35 billion
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 4.35 billion
Last price
4%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$119
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 3.95 billion
  • Above 4 billion
  • Above 4.05 billion

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Uber trips in Q3". Above 3.95 billion leads at 89%. Next is Above 4 billion at 86%. $1K has traded across 9 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Mar 4, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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