The Prediction Markets

UEFA Nations League 2026-27: Group A3 Winner

Closes
Dec 2, 2026, in 40 days
Traded
$143K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Spain 55.3%

Next is France at 27%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 3 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
SpainArb
55.3%
Polymarket 82%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 33%polled, 32s agoKalshi 73%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 38¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $263 (2.63x)
Polymarket
Contract
Spain
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
83¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$120 (1.20x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Spain
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Spain
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 38¢ and selling on Polymarket at 81¢ nets 4300 bps before fees.

France
27%
Kalshi 20%polled, 32s agoKalshi 48%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 20¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
France
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
France
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Kalshi
EnglandArb
20%
Polymarket 15%polled, 3 min agoKalshi 24%polled, 32s agoKalshi 17%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
England
Last price
15%
As of
Polled 3 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
England
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
England
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 16¢ and selling on Kalshi at 23¢ nets 700 bps before fees.

Portugal
19.8%
Kalshi 15%polled, 32s agoKalshi 34%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 15¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $667 (6.67x)
Kalshi
Contract
Portugal
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Portugal
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Netherlands
7.3%
Kalshi 3%polled, 32s agoKalshi 20%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Netherlands
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Netherlands
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Kalshi
Greece
5.5%
Kalshi 3%polled, 32s agoKalshi 13%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Greece
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Greece
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Italy
5%
Kalshi 2%polled, 32s agoKalshi 14%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Italy
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Italy
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Belgium
4.5%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoKalshi 15%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Belgium
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Belgium
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Germany
4.5%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoKalshi 15%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Germany
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Germany
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Norway
4.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoKalshi 14%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Norway
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Norway
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 6 more outcomes
Denmark
3.5%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoKalshi 11%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Denmark
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$273
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Denmark
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Croatia
3.3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoKalshi 10%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Croatia
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Croatia
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Turkiye
3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoKalshi 5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Turkiye
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$468
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Turkiye
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Wales
3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 32s agoKalshi 5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Wales
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Wales
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Czechia
2.8%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 32s agoKalshi 5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Czechia
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Czechia
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Serbia
2.8%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 32s agoKalshi 5%polled, 32s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Serbia
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Serbia
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Spain on Kalshi at 38¢, sell on Polymarket at 81¢ (4300 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Dec 2, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 28, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports, ESPN
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Dec 2, 2026, 4:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 28, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Spain
  • France
  • England

Live prices for Spain

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "UEFA Nations League 2026-27: Group A3 Winner". Spain leads at 55.3%. Next is France at 27%. $143K has traded across 16 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Dec 2, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group A3 at the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League. If the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League is cancelled, postponed after December 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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