The Prediction Markets

UEFA Nations League A: Teams relegated (2026-27)

Closes
Apr 14, 2027, in 6 months
Traded
$173K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Türkiye 83.5%

Next is Spain at 35.5%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Türkiye
83.5%
Polymarket 83.5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
Türkiye
Last price
83.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
81¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
SpainArb
35.5%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 16s agoKalshi 33%polled, 16s agoKalshi 73%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 4.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,041 (20.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Spain
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Volume
$163
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Spain
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$51K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Spain
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.9¢ and selling on Kalshi at 33¢ nets 2810 bps before fees.

CzechiaArb
31%
Polymarket 87.5%polled, 16s agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 16s agoKalshi 5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Czechia
Last price
87.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
89¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$112 (1.12x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Czechia
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Czechia
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 86¢ nets 8500 bps before fees.

SerbiaArb
28.3%
Polymarket 79.5%polled, 16s agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 16s agoKalshi 5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Serbia
Last price
79.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
82¢
Sell Yes
77¢
$100 on Yes pays
$122 (1.22x)
Volume
$8K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Serbia
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Serbia
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 77¢ nets 7600 bps before fees.

FranceArb
22.3%
Polymarket 2.3%polled, 16s agoKalshi 20%polled, 16s agoKalshi 47%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
France
Last price
2.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$190
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
France
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$16K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
France
Last price
47%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 4¢ and selling on Kalshi at 30¢ nets 2600 bps before fees.

CroatiaArb
19.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 16s agoKalshi 1%polled, 16s agoKalshi 10%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Croatia
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Croatia
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$603
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Croatia
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 33¢ nets 3200 bps before fees.

WalesArb
16.8%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 16s agoKalshi 1%polled, 16s agoKalshi 5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wales
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wales
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$281
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Wales
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 44¢ nets 4300 bps before fees.

EnglandArb
16.4%
Polymarket 2.6%polled, 16s agoKalshi 23%polled, 16s agoKalshi 17%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 4.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,128 (21.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
England
Last price
2.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.7¢
Sell Yes
0.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,128 (21.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
England
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
24¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$417 (4.17x)
Volume
$23K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
England
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 4.7¢ and selling on Kalshi at 23¢ nets 1830 bps before fees.

PortugalArb
15.5%
Polymarket 1.2%polled, 16s agoKalshi 14%polled, 16s agoKalshi 33%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 2.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,762 (47.6x)
Polymarket
Contract
Portugal
Last price
1.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.1¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,762 (47.6x)
Volume
$286
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Portugal
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Portugal
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 2.1¢ and selling on Kalshi at 33¢ nets 3090 bps before fees.

Netherlands
15.3%
Polymarket 23%polled, 16s agoKalshi 3%polled, 16s agoKalshi 20%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Netherlands
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
0.9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Netherlands
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,500 (25.0x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Netherlands
Last price
20%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 4¢.

Show 7 more outcomes
NorwayArb
10.2%
Polymarket 24.4%polled, 16s agoKalshi 1%polled, 16s agoKalshi 13%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Norway
Last price
24.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25.8¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$388 (3.88x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Norway
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Norway
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 23¢ nets 2200 bps before fees.

DenmarkArb
10%
Polymarket 14%polled, 16s agoKalshi 1%polled, 16s agoKalshi 11%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Denmark
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Denmark
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$273
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Denmark
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 1¢ and selling on Polymarket at 12¢ nets 1100 bps before fees.

GermanyArb
7.7%
Polymarket 7.1%polled, 16s agoKalshi 1%polled, 16s agoKalshi 15%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Germany
Last price
7.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.1¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,099 (11.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Germany
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Germany
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 5¢ nets 300 bps before fees.

ItalyArb
7.1%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 16s agoKalshi 2%polled, 16s agoKalshi 14%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Italy
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Italy
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Italy
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 6¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Belgium
5.6%
Polymarket 3.1%polled, 16s agoKalshi 1%polled, 16s agoKalshi 16%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Belgium
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Belgium
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Belgium
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.

Greece
5.6%
Polymarket 3.2%polled, 16s agoKalshi 3%polled, 16s agoKalshi 13%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Greece
Last price
3.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5¢
Sell Yes
1.4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,000 (20.0x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Greece
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,333 (33.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Greece
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.4¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.

Turkiye
3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 16s agoKalshi 5%polled, 16s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
Contract
Turkiye
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$468
Trade this on Kalshi
Kalshi
Contract
Turkiye
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Czechia on Kalshi at 1¢, sell on Polymarket at 86¢ (8500 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Apr 14, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 28, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports, ESPN
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Apr 14, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 28, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Türkiye
  • Spain
  • Czechia

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list Türkiye for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "UEFA Nations League A: Teams relegated (2026-27)". Türkiye leads at 83.5%. Next is Spain at 35.5%. $173K has traded across 17 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 14, 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is relegated from UEFA Nations League A at the conclusion of the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Official relegation is defined as a team losing its place in UEFA Nations League A for the 2028-29 UEFA Nations League through their final standing in the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League A league phase, via promotion/relegation play-off defeat, or by any other official decision recognized by UEFA. If the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League is cancelled, postponed after April 13, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there are no teams confirmed for relegation within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official announcements from UEFA. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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