The Prediction Markets

UEFA Nations League Final Qualifiers

Closes
Jun 28, 2027, in 8 months
Traded
$233K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

France 47.5%

Next is Spain at 43.8%. The venues differ most on Spain (Polymarket 34%, Kalshi 73%), a 39-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 5 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
FranceArb
47.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 59s agoPolymarket 82%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 48%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
Contract
France
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
France
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
80¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
France
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 48¢ and selling on Polymarket at 80¢ nets 3200 bps before fees.

Spain
43.8%
Polymarket 34%polled, 59s agoKalshi 73%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Spain
Last price
34%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$26K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Spain
Last price
73%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$37
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 16¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 35¢.

Netherlands
26.4%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 59s agoPolymarket 54.5%polled, 5 min agoKalshi 21%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Netherlands
Last price
5.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$9K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Netherlands
Last price
54.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$7K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Netherlands
Last price
21%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$18
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 21¢ and selling on Polymarket at 52¢ nets 3100 bps before fees.

England
18.1%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 59s agoKalshi 17%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
England
Last price
18.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
18¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Volume
$17K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
England
Last price
17%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
16¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 16¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 19¢.

PortugalArb
16.6%
Polymarket 11.2%polled, 59s agoKalshi 33%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 11.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $893 (8.93x)
Polymarket
Contract
Portugal
Last price
11.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11.2¢
Sell Yes
11.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$893 (8.93x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Portugal
Last price
33%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Polymarket at 11.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 33¢ nets 2180 bps before fees.

Greece
15%
Polymarket 9.1%polled, 59s agoPolymarket 28%polled, 5 min agoKalshi 13%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Greece
Last price
9.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15.6¢
Sell Yes
2.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$641 (6.41x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Greece
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
29.9¢
Sell Yes
26.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$334 (3.34x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Greece
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$3
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 13¢ and selling on Polymarket at 26.1¢ nets 1310 bps before fees.

Germany
12.7%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 59s agoPolymarket 20.5%polled, 5 min agoKalshi 15%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 5.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,695 (16.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Germany
Last price
3.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.9¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,695 (16.9x)
Volume
$15K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Germany
Last price
20.5%
As of
Polled 5 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Germany
Last price
15%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
15¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$667 (6.67x)
Volume
$8
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Indicative only, prices are 5 min old: Buying on Kalshi at 15¢ and selling on Polymarket at 19¢ nets 400 bps before fees.

Italy
7%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 59s agoPolymarket 9.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 14%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 3.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,703 (27.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Italy
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.7¢
Sell Yes
0.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,703 (27.0x)
Volume
$21K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Italy
Last price
9.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Italy
Last price
14%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 9¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 14¢.

Denmark
6.4%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 59s agoKalshi 11%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 8.8¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,136 (11.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Denmark
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.8¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,136 (11.4x)
Volume
$14K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Denmark
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$2
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Belgium
6.2%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 59s agoPolymarket 5.3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 16%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 2.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,545 (45.5x)
Polymarket
Contract
Belgium
Last price
1.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.2¢
Sell Yes
1.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,545 (45.5x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Belgium
Last price
5.3%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
9.7¢
Sell Yes
0.8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,031 (10.3x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Belgium
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 16¢.

Show 6 more outcomes
Czechia
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Czechia
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Serbia
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Serbia
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Turkiye
5%
Kalshi 5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Kalshi
Contract
Turkiye
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Norway
4.4%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 59s agoKalshi 13%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 2.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $4,167 (41.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Norway
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.4¢
Sell Yes
0.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$4,167 (41.7x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Norway
Last price
13%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 13¢.

Croatia
2.5%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 59s agoKalshi 10%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Croatia
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Croatia
Last price
10%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Wales
2.5%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 59s agoKalshi 5%polled, 59s agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
Contract
Wales
Last price
0.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
0.1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$100,000 (1000x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Wales
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy France on Kalshi at 48¢, sell on Polymarket at 80¢ (3200 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Jun 14, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 28, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, UEFA
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jun 14, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 28, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • France
  • Spain
  • Netherlands

Live prices for France

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "UEFA Nations League Final Qualifiers". France leads at 47.5%. Next is Spain at 43.8%. $233K has traded across 16 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 28, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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