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Best ask
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What the markets expect
USA 50%
Next is Spain at 43.3%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.
Odds by venue
Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.
Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.
- Polymarket
- Kalshi
Outcome
Consensus
Venue prices on a 0–100% scale
Polymarket
Kalshi
Best Yes price
USA50%Not listed50%33¢ bid, 50¢ askpolled, 1 min ago50¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $200 (2.00x)USA50%Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
USA
50%
Not listed
50%
33¢ bid, 50¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
50¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $200 (2.00x)
USA
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- USA
- Last price
- 50%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 50¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $200 (2.00x)
- Volume
- $8K
Spain43.3%34%33¢ bid, 35¢ askpolled, 1 min ago73%16¢ bid, 74¢ askpolled, 1 min ago35¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $286 (2.86x)Spain43.3%Polymarket 34%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 73%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Spain
43.3%
34%
33¢ bid, 35¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
73%
16¢ bid, 74¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
35¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Spain
43.3%
Polymarket 34%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 73%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Spain
- Last price
- 34%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 35¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $286 (2.86x)
- Volume
- $26K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Spain
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
- Volume
- $51K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Spain
- Last price
- 73%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 74¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $135 (1.35x)
- Volume
- $37
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 33¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 35¢.
Mexico35%Not listed35%35¢ bid, 36¢ askpolled, 1 min ago36¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $278 (2.78x)Mexico35%Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Mexico
35%
Not listed
35%
35¢ bid, 36¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
36¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Mexico
35%
Kalshi 35%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Mexico
- Last price
- 35%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 36¢
- Sell Yes
- 35¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $278 (2.78x)
- Volume
- $27K
FranceArb25.7%16.5%16¢ bid, 17¢ askpolled, 1 min ago48%30¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 1 min ago17¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $588 (5.88x)FranceArb25.7%Polymarket 16.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
FranceArb
25.7%
16.5%
16¢ bid, 17¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
48%
30¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
17¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $588 (5.88x)
FranceArb
25.7%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 48%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 17¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- France
- Last price
- 16.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 17¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $588 (5.88x)
- Volume
- $14K
Kalshi
- Contract
- France
- Last price
- 20%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 22¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $455 (4.55x)
- Volume
- $16K
Kalshi
- Contract
- France
- Last price
- 48%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 30¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $94
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 17¢ and selling on Kalshi at 30¢ nets 1300 bps before fees.
EnglandArb20%18.5%18¢ bid, 19¢ askpolled, 1 min ago17%16¢ bid, 48¢ askpolled, 1 min ago19¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $526 (5.26x)EnglandArb20%Polymarket 18.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
EnglandArb
20%
18.5%
18¢ bid, 19¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
17%
16¢ bid, 48¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
19¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $526 (5.26x)
EnglandArb
20%
Polymarket 18.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 23%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 17%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- England
- Last price
- 18.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 19¢
- Sell Yes
- 18¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $526 (5.26x)
- Volume
- $17K
Kalshi
- Contract
- England
- Last price
- 23%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 24¢
- Sell Yes
- 23¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $417 (4.17x)
- Volume
- $23K
Kalshi
- Contract
- England
- Last price
- 17%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 48¢
- Sell Yes
- 16¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $208 (2.08x)
- Volume
- $1K
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 19¢ and selling on Kalshi at 23¢ nets 400 bps before fees.
PortugalArb17.6%11.2%11.1¢ bid, 11.2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago33%33¢ bid, 34¢ askpolled, 1 min ago11.2¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $893 (8.93x)PortugalArb17.6%Polymarket 11.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $893 (8.93x)
PortugalArb
17.6%
11.2%
11.1¢ bid, 11.2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
33%
33¢ bid, 34¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
11.2¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $893 (8.93x)
PortugalArb
17.6%
Polymarket 11.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 33%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 11.2¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $893 (8.93x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Portugal
- Last price
- 11.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 11.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 11.1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $893 (8.93x)
- Volume
- $14K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Portugal
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- 9¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $11K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Portugal
- Last price
- 33%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 34¢
- Sell Yes
- 33¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $294 (2.94x)
- Volume
- $1K
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 11.2¢ and selling on Kalshi at 33¢ nets 2180 bps before fees.
Curacao13%Not listed13%2¢ bid, 13¢ askpolled, 1 min ago13¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $769 (7.69x)Curacao13%Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Curacao
13%
Not listed
13%
2¢ bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
13¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Curacao
13%
Kalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Curacao
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- 2¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $628
Canada9%Not listed9%4¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Canada9%Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Canada
9%
Not listed
9%
4¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Canada
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Canada
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 4¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $2K
Guatemala9%Not listed9%3¢ bid, 9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago9¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)Guatemala9%Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Guatemala
9%
Not listed
9%
3¢ bid, 9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
9¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Guatemala
9%
Kalshi 9%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 9¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Guatemala
- Last price
- 9%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 9¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,111 (11.1x)
- Volume
- $3K
NetherlandsArb8.3%5.5%5¢ bid, 6¢ askpolled, 1 min ago20%10¢ bid, 20¢ askpolled, 1 min ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)NetherlandsArb8.3%Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
NetherlandsArb
8.3%
5.5%
5¢ bid, 6¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
20%
10¢ bid, 20¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
NetherlandsArb
8.3%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 20%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Netherlands
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 6¢
- Sell Yes
- 5¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,667 (16.7x)
- Volume
- $9K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Netherlands
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $7K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Netherlands
- Last price
- 20%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 20¢
- Sell Yes
- 10¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $500 (5.00x)
- Volume
- $18
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Buying on Polymarket at 6¢ and selling on Kalshi at 10¢ nets 400 bps before fees.
Show 22 more outcomesHide 22 outcomes
Greece6.7%5.5%3¢ bid, 8¢ askpolled, 1 min ago13%— bid, 13¢ askpolled, 1 min ago3¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)Greece6.7%Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Greece
6.7%
5.5%
3¢ bid, 8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
13%
— bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
3¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Greece
6.7%
Polymarket 5.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 3%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 3¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $3,333 (33.3x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Greece
- Last price
- 5.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8¢
- Sell Yes
- 3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,250 (12.5x)
- Volume
- $14K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Greece
- Last price
- 3%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $3,333 (33.3x)
- Volume
- $5K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Greece
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $3
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 3¢.
Germany6.2%3.8%1.7¢ bid, 5.9¢ askpolled, 1 min ago16%— bid, 16¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Germany6.2%Polymarket 3.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Germany
6.2%
3.8%
1.7¢ bid, 5.9¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
16%
— bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Germany
6.2%
Polymarket 3.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Germany
- Last price
- 3.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 5.9¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,695 (16.9x)
- Volume
- $15K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Germany
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $4K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Germany
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $8
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.
Denmark5.4%4.8%0.8¢ bid, 8.8¢ askpolled, 1 min ago11%— bid, 11¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Denmark5.4%Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Denmark
5.4%
4.8%
0.8¢ bid, 8.8¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
11%
— bid, 11¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Denmark
5.4%
Polymarket 4.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 11%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Denmark
- Last price
- 4.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 8.8¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.8¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,136 (11.4x)
- Volume
- $14K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Denmark
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $273
Kalshi
- Contract
- Denmark
- Last price
- 11%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 11¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $909 (9.09x)
- Volume
- $2
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.8¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.
Belgium5.1%1.8%1.3¢ bid, 2.2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago16%— bid, 16¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Belgium5.1%Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Belgium
5.1%
1.8%
1.3¢ bid, 2.2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
16%
— bid, 16¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Belgium
5.1%
Polymarket 1.8%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Belgium
- Last price
- 1.8%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1.3¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,545 (45.5x)
- Volume
- $12K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Belgium
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Belgium
- Last price
- 16%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 16¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $625 (6.25x)
- Volume
- $6
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 1.3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.
Italy5.1%2.2%0.7¢ bid, 3.7¢ askpolled, 1 min ago14%— bid, 14¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Italy5.1%Polymarket 2.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Italy
5.1%
2.2%
0.7¢ bid, 3.7¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
14%
— bid, 14¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Italy
5.1%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 2%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 14%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Italy
- Last price
- 2.2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 3.7¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.7¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,703 (27.0x)
- Volume
- $21K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Italy
- Last price
- 2%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $3K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Italy
- Last price
- 14%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 14¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $714 (7.14x)
- Volume
- $10
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.7¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 2¢.
Norway4.3%1.5%0.6¢ bid, 2.4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago13%— bid, 13¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Norway4.3%Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Norway
4.3%
1.5%
0.6¢ bid, 2.4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
13%
— bid, 13¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Norway
4.3%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 13%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Norway
- Last price
- 1.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2.4¢
- Sell Yes
- 0.6¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $4,167 (41.7x)
- Volume
- $12K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Norway
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $3K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Norway
- Last price
- 13%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 13¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $769 (7.69x)
- Volume
- $6
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.6¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.
Haiti4%Not listed4%1¢ bid, 4¢ askpolled, 1 min ago4¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)Haiti4%Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Haiti
4%
Not listed
4%
1¢ bid, 4¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
4¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Haiti
4%
Kalshi 4%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 4¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $2,500 (25.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Haiti
- Last price
- 4%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 4¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $2,500 (25.0x)
- Volume
- $1K
Turkiye3%Not listed5%— bid, 10¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Turkiye3%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Turkiye
3%
Not listed
5%
— bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Turkiye
3%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Turkiye
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $468
Kalshi
- Contract
- Turkiye
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Croatia2.8%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago10%— bid, 10¢ askpolled, 1 min ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Croatia2.8%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Croatia
2.8%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
10%
— bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Croatia
2.8%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 10%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Croatia
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $6K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Croatia
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $603
Kalshi
- Contract
- Croatia
- Last price
- 10%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
- Volume
- $4
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Czechia2.8%Not listed5%— bid, 10¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Czechia2.8%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Czechia
2.8%
Not listed
5%
— bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Czechia
2.8%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Czechia
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Czechia
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Serbia2.8%Not listed5%— bid, 10¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Serbia2.8%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Serbia
2.8%
Not listed
5%
— bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Serbia
2.8%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Serbia
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Serbia
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Wales2%0.1%— bid, 0.1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago5%— bid, 10¢ askpolled, 1 min ago0.1¢ on Polymarket$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)Wales2%Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Wales
2%
0.1%
— bid, 0.1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
5%
— bid, 10¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
0.1¢ on Polymarket
$100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Wales
2%
Polymarket 0.1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 0.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $100,000 (1000x)
Polymarket
- Contract
- Wales
- Last price
- 0.1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 0.1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $100,000 (1000x)
- Volume
- $1K
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wales
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $281
Kalshi
- Contract
- Wales
- Last price
- 5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 10¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $1,000 (10.0x)
Same label, rules unverified
Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.
Costa Rica1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Costa Rica1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Costa Rica
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Costa Rica
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Costa Rica
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $55
Dominican Republic1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Dominican Republic1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Dominican Republic
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Dominican Republic
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Dominican Republic
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $15
El Salvador1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)El Salvador1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
El Salvador
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
El Salvador
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- El Salvador
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $34
Honduras1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Honduras1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Honduras
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Honduras
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Honduras
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $1K
Jamaica1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Jamaica1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jamaica
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Jamaica
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Jamaica
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $297
Panama1%Not listed1%1¢ bid, 2¢ askpolled, 1 min ago2¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)Panama1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Panama
1%
Not listed
1%
1¢ bid, 2¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
2¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Panama
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Panama
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 2¢
- Sell Yes
- 1¢
- $100 on Yes pays
- $5,000 (50.0x)
- Volume
- $109
Suriname1%Not listed1%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Suriname1%Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Suriname
1%
Not listed
1%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Suriname
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Suriname
- Last price
- 1%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
- Volume
- $216
Martinique0.5%Not listed0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Martinique0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Martinique
0.5%
Not listed
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Martinique
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Martinique
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Nicaragua0.5%Not listed0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Nicaragua0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Nicaragua
0.5%
Not listed
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Nicaragua
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Nicaragua
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Trinidad and Tobago0.5%Not listed0.5%— bid, 1¢ askpolled, 1 min ago1¢ on Kalshi$100 pays $10,000 (100x)Trinidad and Tobago0.5%Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Trinidad and Tobago
0.5%
Not listed
0.5%
— bid, 1¢ ask
polled, 1 min ago
1¢ on Kalshi
$100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Trinidad and Tobago
0.5%
Kalshi 0.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Kalshi
- Contract
- Trinidad and Tobago
- Last price
- 0.5%
- As of
- Polled 1 min ago
- Buy Yes
- 1¢
- Sell Yes
- —
- $100 on Yes pays
- $10,000 (100x)
Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Portugal on Polymarket at 11.2¢, sell on Kalshi at 33¢ (2180 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads
Mostly the same bet: one difference
Where they differ
- Trading closes at different times: Jun 14, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 28, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
- Polymarket resolves via:
- UMA optimistic oracle
- Kalshi resolves via:
- Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports, ESPN
Show full rule comparisonHide full rule comparison
- Trading closes Jun 14, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jun 28, 2027, 2:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.
How the odds have moved
The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.
- USA
- Spain
- Mexico
Order books
Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.
Polymarket
Polymarket doesn’t list USA for this event.
What your stake buys
Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.
$
Buy
Loading both order books…
Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.
About this market
Live prediction market odds for "UEFA Nations League Winner 2026-27". USA leads at 50%. Next is Spain at 43.3%. $358K has traded across 32 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 14, 2027.
This market will resolve according to the team that wins the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League per the rules of UEFA (e.g., they are eliminated), the corresponding market will resolve to "No". If the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League is cancelled, postponed after June 13, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Questions
What does the consensus price mean?
It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.
How is the payout worked out?
A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.
Why do the venues show different prices?
Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.
Is a price gap an arbitrage?
Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.
How fresh are these prices?
Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.
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