The Prediction Markets

UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)

Starts in 31 hKickoff
Traded
$729K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

O/U 0.5 Rounds 93%

Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 74.5%. The venues differ most on Alex Volkanovski (Polymarket 49.5%, Kalshi 51%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
O/U 0.5 Rounds
93%
Polymarket 93%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Last price
93%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
90¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 1.5 Rounds
74.5%
Polymarket 74.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 94¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $106 (1.06x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Last price
74.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
94¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$106 (1.06x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 4.5 Rounds
71%
Polymarket 71%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 4.5 Rounds
Last price
71%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
70¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 2.5 Rounds
70.5%
Polymarket 70.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight to Go the Distance?
68.5%
Polymarket 68.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight to Go the Distance?
Last price
68.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$67
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 3.5 Rounds
67.5%
Polymarket 67.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 80¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $125 (1.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 3.5 Rounds
Last price
67.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
80¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$125 (1.25x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by decision?
64.5%
Polymarket 64.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by decision?
Last price
64.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Decision or Draw
62.5%
Polymarket 62.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 68¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $147 (1.47x)
Polymarket
Contract
Decision or Draw
Last price
62.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
68¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$147 (1.47x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Alex Volkanovski
50.6%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 43s agoKalshi 51%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$100K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alex Volkanovski
Last price
51%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Volume
$413K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 50¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 50¢.

Movsar Evloev
50%
Kalshi 50%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Kalshi
Contract
Movsar Evloev
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$215K
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 18 more outcomes
Volkanovski to win by KO/TKO?
30%
Polymarket 30%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Volkanovski to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
30%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 5?
29%
Polymarket 29%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 31¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $323 (3.23x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 5?
Last price
29%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
31¢
Sell Yes
27¢
$100 on Yes pays
$323 (3.23x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by KO/TKO?
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by KO/TKO?
Last price
28%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by submission?
27.5%
Polymarket 27.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 49¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $204 (2.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by submission?
Last price
27.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
49¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$204 (2.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Evloev to win by KO/TKO?
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 48¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Polymarket
Contract
Evloev to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
27%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Evloev in Round 1
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Evloev in Round 1
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Evloev in Round 2
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Evloev in Round 2
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Evloev in Round 3
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Evloev in Round 3
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Evloev in Round 4
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Evloev in Round 4
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Evloev in Round 5
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Evloev in Round 5
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Volkanovski in Round 1
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Volkanovski in Round 1
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Volkanovski in Round 2
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Volkanovski in Round 2
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Volkanovski in Round 3
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Volkanovski in Round 3
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Volkanovski in Round 4
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Volkanovski in Round 4
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Volkanovski in Round 5
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Volkanovski in Round 5
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 4?
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 4?
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 3?
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 3?
Last price
16%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 2?
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 43s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 2?
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Ties: both venues pay 50/50.

Where they differ

  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: DAZN, ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Ties: both venues pay 50/50.
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Trading closes Oct 25, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 7:10 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • O/U 0.5 Rounds
  • O/U 1.5 Rounds
  • O/U 4.5 Rounds

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 0.5 Rounds for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "UFC 333: Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev (Featherweight, Main Card)". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 93%. Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 74.5%. $729K has traded across 28 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Alexander Volkanovski" if Alexander Volkanovski is officially declared the winner of the fight against Movsar Evloev at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Movsar Evloev" if Movsar Evloev is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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