The Prediction Markets

UFC 333: Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev (Heavyweight, Main Card)

Starts in 28 hKickoff
Traded
$136K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

O/U 0.5 Rounds 90.5%

Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 78%. The venues differ most on Alexander Volkov (Polymarket 52.5%, Kalshi 54%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 1 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
O/U 0.5 Rounds
90.5%
Polymarket 90.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 95¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $105 (1.05x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Last price
90.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
95¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$105 (1.05x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 1.5 Rounds
78%
Polymarket 78%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 2.5 Rounds
68.5%
Polymarket 68.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Last price
68.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
67¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight to Go the Distance?
65.5%
Polymarket 65.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 67¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $149 (1.49x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight to Go the Distance?
Last price
65.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
67¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$149 (1.49x)
Volume
$206
Trade this on Polymarket
Decision or Draw
63.5%
Polymarket 63.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Decision or Draw
Last price
63.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by decision?
63.5%
Polymarket 63.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by decision?
Last price
63.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
58¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Alexander Volkov
53.6%
Polymarket 52.5%polled, 1 min agoKalshi 54%polled, just nowBest Yes 53¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $189 (1.89x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev
Last price
52.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
53¢
Sell Yes
52¢
$100 on Yes pays
$189 (1.89x)
Volume
$27K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alexander Volkov
Last price
54%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
54¢
Sell Yes
53¢
$100 on Yes pays
$185 (1.85x)
Volume
$68K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 53¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 53¢.

Rizvan Kuniev
48%
Kalshi 48%polled, just nowBest Yes 48¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $208 (2.08x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rizvan Kuniev
Last price
48%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
48¢
Sell Yes
47¢
$100 on Yes pays
$208 (2.08x)
Volume
$41K
Trade this on Kalshi
Fight won by KO/TKO?
31.5%
Polymarket 31.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 37¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $270 (2.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by KO/TKO?
Last price
31.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 3?
28%
Polymarket 28%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 3?
Last price
28%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 10 more outcomes
Volkov to win by KO/TKO?
16.5%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Volkov to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 2?
16%
Polymarket 16%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 18¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $556 (5.56x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 2?
Last price
16%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
18¢
Sell Yes
14¢
$100 on Yes pays
$556 (5.56x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kuniev to win by KO/TKO?
15.5%
Polymarket 15.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 20¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $500 (5.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kuniev to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
15.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
20¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$500 (5.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Volkov in Round 1
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Volkov in Round 1
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kuniev in Round 1
8%
Polymarket 8%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 13¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $769 (7.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kuniev in Round 1
Last price
8%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kuniev in Round 2
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kuniev in Round 2
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Volkov in Round 2
7.5%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Volkov in Round 2
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by submission?
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by submission?
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kuniev in Round 3
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kuniev in Round 3
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Volkov in Round 3
6.5%
Polymarket 6.5%polled, 1 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Volkov in Round 3
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled 1 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Ties: both venues pay 50/50.

Where they differ

  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: DAZN, ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Ties: both venues pay 50/50.
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Trading closes Oct 25, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 6:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • O/U 0.5 Rounds
  • O/U 1.5 Rounds
  • O/U 2.5 Rounds

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 0.5 Rounds for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "UFC 333: Alexander Volkov vs. Rizvan Kuniev (Heavyweight, Main Card)". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 90.5%. Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 78%. $136K has traded across 20 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Alexander Volkov" if Alexander Volkov is officially declared the winner of the fight against Rizvan Kuniev at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Rizvan Kuniev" if Rizvan Kuniev is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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