The Prediction Markets

UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)

Starts in 29 hKickoff
Traded
$458K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
47 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

O/U 0.5 Rounds 92.5%

Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 90%. The venues differ most on Merab Dvalishvili (Polymarket 41.5%, Kalshi 43%), a 1.5-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

1 of 29 prices are live from the exchange feeds; the rest come from our regular price polls, the oldest 48 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
O/U 0.5 Rounds
92.5%
Polymarket 92.5%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Last price
92.5%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
88¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 1.5 Rounds
90%
Polymarket 90%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
84¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 2.5 Rounds
72.5%
Polymarket 72.5%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 90¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
55¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 4.5 Rounds
72%
Polymarket 72%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 73¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $137 (1.37x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 4.5 Rounds
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$125
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight to Go the Distance?
69.5%
Polymarket 69.5%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 71¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $141 (1.41x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight to Go the Distance?
Last price
69.5%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
71¢
Sell Yes
68¢
$100 on Yes pays
$141 (1.41x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 3.5 Rounds
68%
Polymarket 68%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 86¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $116 (1.16x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 3.5 Rounds
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
86¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$116 (1.16x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Decision or Draw
62.5%
Polymarket 62.5%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Decision or Draw
Last price
62.5%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
56¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Volume
$404
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by decision?
62.5%
Polymarket 62.5%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 75¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $133 (1.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by decision?
Last price
62.5%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
75¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$133 (1.33x)
Volume
$1
Trade this on Polymarket
Petr Yan
58%
Kalshi 58%polled, 47 min agoBest Yes 58¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $172 (1.72x)
Kalshi
Contract
Petr Yan
Last price
58%
As of
Polled 47 min ago
Buy Yes
58¢
Sell Yes
57¢
$100 on Yes pays
$172 (1.72x)
Volume
$118K
Trade this on Kalshi
Merab Dvalishvili
42.1%
Polymarket 41.5%polled, 48 min agoKalshi 43%live, 47 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Polymarket
Contract
Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan
Last price
41.5%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$209K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Merab Dvalishvili
Price
43%
As of
Live feed, 47 min ago
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$128K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Indicative only, prices are 48 min old: No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 42¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 42¢.

Show 18 more outcomes
Yan to win by KO/TKO?
33.5%
Polymarket 33.5%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 44¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $227 (2.27x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yan to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
33.5%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
44¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$227 (2.27x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Dvalishvili to win by KO/TKO?
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 47¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $213 (2.13x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dvalishvili to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$386
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by KO/TKO?
27%
Polymarket 27%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 34¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $294 (2.94x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by KO/TKO?
Last price
27%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
34¢
Sell Yes
20¢
$100 on Yes pays
$294 (2.94x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Dvalishvili in Round 1
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dvalishvili in Round 1
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Dvalishvili in Round 2
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dvalishvili in Round 2
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Dvalishvili in Round 3
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dvalishvili in Round 3
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Dvalishvili in Round 4
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dvalishvili in Round 4
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Dvalishvili in Round 5
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Dvalishvili in Round 5
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Yan in Round 1
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yan in Round 1
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Yan in Round 2
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yan in Round 2
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Yan in Round 3
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yan in Round 3
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Yan in Round 4
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yan in Round 4
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Yan in Round 5
26.5%
Polymarket 26.5%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yan in Round 5
Last price
26.5%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 5?
23%
Polymarket 23%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 5?
Last price
23%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 4?
17%
Polymarket 17%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 19¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $526 (5.26x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 4?
Last price
17%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
19¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$526 (5.26x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by submission?
14.5%
Polymarket 14.5%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by submission?
Last price
14.5%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 3?
12%
Polymarket 12%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 14¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $714 (7.14x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 3?
Last price
12%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
14¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$714 (7.14x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 2?
8.5%
Polymarket 8.5%polled, 48 min agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 2?
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled 48 min ago
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$91
Trade this on Polymarket

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Mostly the same bet: two differences

Ties: both venues pay 50/50.

Where they differ

  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: DAZN, ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • If the fight is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the fight does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the fight is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up (UFC: ~14 days).
  • Ties: both venues pay 50/50.
  • Kalshi ignores result changes after expiry; Polymarket follows the official UFC result.
  • Trading closes Oct 25, 2026, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 6:40 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • O/U 0.5 Rounds
  • O/U 1.5 Rounds
  • O/U 2.5 Rounds

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

Kalshi

Kalshi doesn’t list O/U 0.5 Rounds for this event.

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "UFC 333: Merab Dvalishvili vs. Petr Yan (Bantamweight, Main Card)". O/U 0.5 Rounds leads at 92.5%. Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 90%. $458K has traded across 28 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 25, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Merab Dvalishvili" if Merab Dvalishvili is officially declared the winner of the fight against Petr Yan at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Petr Yan" if Petr Yan is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More sports markets

See all sports markets