The Prediction Markets

UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Francis Marshall (Featherweight, Prelims)

Starts in 9 daysKickoff
Traded
$9K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Bolaños to win by KO/TKO? 50.5%

Next is Fight won by KO/TKO? at 50.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Bolaños to win by KO/TKO?
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bolaños to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by KO/TKO?
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by KO/TKO?
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by submission?
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by submission?
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Marshall to win by KO/TKO?
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marshall to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
4¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 1.5 Rounds
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 2.5 Rounds
50.5%
Polymarket 50.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 51¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $196 (1.96x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Last price
50.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
51¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$196 (1.96x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Bolaños in Round 2
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bolaños in Round 2
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Bolaños in Round 3
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bolaños in Round 3
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Decision or Draw
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Decision or Draw
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Ends before Round 2?
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 2?
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 9 more outcomes
Ends before Round 3?
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ends before Round 3?
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight to Go the Distance?
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight to Go the Distance?
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by decision?
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by decision?
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Marshall in Round 1
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marshall in Round 1
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Marshall in Round 3
50%
Polymarket 50%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marshall in Round 3
Last price
50%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Bolaños in Round 1
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Bolaños in Round 1
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Gaston Bolaños vs. Francis Marshall
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gaston Bolaños vs. Francis Marshall
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Marshall in Round 2
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
Marshall in Round 2
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 0.5 Rounds
49.5%
Polymarket 49.5%polled, 38s agoBest Yes 50¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $200 (2.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Last price
49.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
50¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$200 (2.00x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Bolaños to win by KO/TKO?
  • Fight won by KO/TKO?
  • Fight won by submission?

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "UFC Fight Night: Gaston Bolaños vs. Francis Marshall (Featherweight, Prelims)". Bolaños to win by KO/TKO? leads at 50.5%. Next is Fight won by KO/TKO? at 50.5%. $9K has traded across 19 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Nov 1, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Gaston Bolaños" if Gaston Bolaños is officially declared the winner of the fight against Francis Marshall at UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Nolan, scheduled for October 31, 2026. It will resolve to "Francis Marshall" if Francis Marshall is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 14, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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