The Prediction Markets

UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)

FinalKickoff
Traded
$79K
Venues
Polymarket
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This market has closed

Trading ended on May 3, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 175 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
O/U 0.5 Rounds
72%
Polymarket 72%polled, 4223 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 0.5 Rounds
Last price
72%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
48¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 1.5 Rounds
70.5%
Polymarket 70.5%polled, 4223 h agoBest Yes 91¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $110 (1.10x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 1.5 Rounds
Last price
70.5%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
91¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$110 (1.10x)
Trade this on Polymarket
O/U 2.5 Rounds
68%
Polymarket 68%polled, 4223 h agoBest Yes 70¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $143 (1.43x)
Polymarket
Contract
O/U 2.5 Rounds
Last price
68%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
70¢
Sell Yes
66¢
$100 on Yes pays
$143 (1.43x)
Volume
$61
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight to Go the Distance?
67%
Polymarket 67%polled, 4223 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight to Go the Distance?
Last price
67%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
50¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by submission?
40.5%
Polymarket 40.5%polled, 4223 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by submission?
Last price
40.5%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Fight won by KO/TKO?
36%
Polymarket 36%polled, 4223 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fight won by KO/TKO?
Last price
36%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Elliott to win by KO/TKO?
35.5%
Polymarket 35.5%polled, 4223 h agoBest Yes 69¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $145 (1.45x)
Polymarket
Contract
Elliott to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
35.5%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
69¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$145 (1.45x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg
34.5%
Polymarket 34.5%polled, 4223 h agoBest Yes 35¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $286 (2.86x)
Polymarket
Contract
Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
35¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$286 (2.86x)
Volume
$79K
Trade this on Polymarket
Erceg to win by KO/TKO?
31%
Polymarket 31%polled, 4223 h agoBest Yes 60¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $167 (1.67x)
Polymarket
Contract
Erceg to win by KO/TKO?
Last price
31%
As of
Polled 175 d ago
Buy Yes
60¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$167 (1.67x)
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: ufc.com

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • O/U 0.5 Rounds
  • O/U 1.5 Rounds
  • O/U 2.5 Rounds

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card)". O/U 0.5 Rounds last traded at 72%. Next is O/U 1.5 Rounds at 70.5%. $79K has traded across 9 outcomes on Polymarket. The market closed on May 3, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Tim Elliott" if Tim Elliott is officially declared the winner of the fight against Steve Erceg at UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates, scheduled for May 2, 2026. It will resolve to "Steve Erceg" if Steve Erceg is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 16, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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