The Prediction Markets

UFC: Who Will Conor McGregor Fight Next?

Ends in about 435 daysExpected to finish
Traded
$35K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
2 min ago
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What the markets expect

Conor McGregor 42%

Next is Max Holloway at 23.9%. The venues list this event, but none of their outcomes are matched yet, so prices are shown separately.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Conor McGregor
42%
Kalshi 42%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 42¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $238 (2.38x)
Kalshi
Contract
Conor McGregor
Last price
42%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
42¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$238 (2.38x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Max Holloway
23.9%
Polymarket 23.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 25.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $398 (3.98x)
Polymarket
Contract
Max Holloway
Last price
23.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
25.1¢
Sell Yes
22.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$398 (3.98x)
Volume
$11K
Trade this on Polymarket
Michael Chandler
14%
Polymarket 14%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 16¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $625 (6.25x)
Polymarket
Contract
Michael Chandler
Last price
14%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
16¢
Sell Yes
12¢
$100 on Yes pays
$625 (6.25x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Nate Diaz
10%
Polymarket 10%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 12¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $833 (8.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nate Diaz
Last price
10%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Jorge Masvidal
6.3%
Polymarket 6.3%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 10.9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $917 (9.17x)
Polymarket
Contract
Jorge Masvidal
Last price
6.3%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
10.9¢
Sell Yes
1.6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$917 (9.17x)
Volume
$724
Trade this on Polymarket
Ian Garry
2.8%
Polymarket 2.8%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 3.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $2,941 (29.4x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ian Garry
Last price
2.8%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
3.4¢
Sell Yes
2.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,941 (29.4x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, UFC

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Conor McGregor
  • Max Holloway
  • Michael Chandler

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Polymarket doesn’t list Conor McGregor for this event.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
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Spread
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Best ask
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Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "UFC: Who Will Conor McGregor Fight Next?". Conor McGregor leads at 42%. Next is Max Holloway at 23.9%. $35K has traded across 6 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jul 12, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Conor McGregor is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Conor McGregor is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count. If Conor McGregor is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by July 11, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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