The Prediction Markets

UFC: Who Will Ilia Topuria Fight Next?

Ends in about 435 daysExpected to finish
Traded
$13K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Paddy Pimblett 49.2%

Next is Alexander Volkanovski at 49%. The venues differ most on Justin Gaethje (Polymarket 7%, Kalshi 25%), a 18-point gap.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Paddy Pimblett
49.2%
Polymarket 46%polled, 39s agoKalshi 59%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 59¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $169 (1.69x)
Polymarket
Contract
Paddy Pimblett
Last price
46%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
61¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$164 (1.64x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Paddy Pimblett
Last price
59%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
59¢
Sell Yes
41¢
$100 on Yes pays
$169 (1.69x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 41¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 61¢.

Alexander Volkanovski
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Alexander Volkanovski
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Beneil Dariush
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Beneil Dariush
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Benoit Saint Denis
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Benoît Saint Denis
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Dan Hooker
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Dan Hooker
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Diego Lopes
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Diego Lopes
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mateusz Gamrot
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mateusz Gamrot
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Mauricio Ruffy
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Mauricio Ruffy
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Movsar Evloev
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Movsar Evloev
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Quillan Salkilld
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Quillan Salkilld
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Show 10 more outcomes
Rafael Fiziev
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Rafael Fiziev
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Renato Moicano
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Renato Moicano
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Salahdine Parnasse
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Salahdine Parnasse
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Tom Nolan
49%
Kalshi 49%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 98¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $102 (1.02x)
Kalshi
Contract
Tom Nolan
Last price
49%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Islam Makhachev
48.5%
Kalshi 48.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Islam Makhachev
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Max Holloway
48.5%
Kalshi 48.5%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 97¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $103 (1.03x)
Kalshi
Contract
Max Holloway
Last price
48.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
97¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$103 (1.03x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Arman Tsarukyan
16.9%
Polymarket 16.5%polled, 39s agoKalshi 18%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 30¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $333 (3.33x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arman Tsarukyan
Last price
16.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
30¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$333 (3.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Arman Tsarukyan
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
81¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$123 (1.23x)
Volume
$557
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 3¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 81¢.

Justin Gaethje
11.5%
Polymarket 7%polled, 39s agoKalshi 25%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 11¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $909 (9.09x)
Polymarket
Contract
Justin Gaethje
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Justin Gaethje
Last price
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
98¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$102 (1.02x)
Volume
$738
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 5¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 11¢.

Benoit Saint Denis
6.7%
Polymarket 6.7%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 8.4¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,190 (11.9x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benoit Saint Denis
Last price
6.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8.4¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,190 (11.9x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Polymarket
Charles Oliveira
1%
Kalshi 1%polled, 39s agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Charles Oliveira
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$24
Trade this on Kalshi

No cross-venue arbitrage right now: on every matched outcome, the best bid on one venue is at or below the cheapest ask on the other. Find markets with open spreads

Likely the same bet: we have not reviewed these rules side by side yet

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, the Governing League
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Jun 17, 2027, 3:59 AM UTC on Polymarket and Jan 1, 2028, 3:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Paddy Pimblett
  • Alexander Volkanovski
  • Beneil Dariush

Live prices for Paddy Pimblett

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
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Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "UFC: Who Will Ilia Topuria Fight Next?". Paddy Pimblett leads at 49.2%. Next is Alexander Volkanovski at 49%. $13K has traded across 20 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Jun 17, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Ilia Topuria is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that UFC officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count. If Ilia Topuria is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by June 16, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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