The Prediction Markets

UFC: Who Will Joshua Van Fight Next?

Closes
Sep 21, 2027, in 11 months
Traded
$5K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
2 min ago
Share

What the markets expect

Manel Kape 95.6%

Next is Asu Almabayev at 3.5%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Manel Kape 95.6%Asu Almabayev 3.5%Brandon Royval 0.9%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 2 min ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Manel Kape
95.6%
Polymarket 96.3%(95.6% fair)polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 99.1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Polymarket
Contract
Manel Kape
Last price
96.3%
Fair, margin removed
95.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
99.1¢
Sell Yes
93.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Asu Almabayev
3.5%
Polymarket 3.6%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 6.6¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,515 (15.2x)
Polymarket
Contract
Asu Almabayev
Last price
3.6%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
6.6¢
Sell Yes
0.5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,515 (15.2x)
Volume
$468
Trade this on Polymarket
Brandon Royval
0.9%
Polymarket 0.9%polled, 2 min agoBest Yes 1.5¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $6,667 (66.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Brandon Royval
Last price
0.9%
As of
Polled 2 min ago
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$753
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Manel Kape
  • Asu Almabayev
  • Brandon Royval

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

Loading…

What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Cover all 3 outcomes across venues

Loading every outcome’s book…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "UFC: Who Will Joshua Van Fight Next?". Manel Kape leads at 95.6%. Next is Asu Almabayev at 3.5%. $5K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Sep 21, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Joshua Van is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that UFC officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count. If Joshua Van is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by September 20, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

More sports markets

See all sports markets