The Prediction Markets

UFC: Who Will Quillan Salkilld Fight Next?

Closes
Aug 9, 2027, in 10 months
Traded
$11K
Venues
Polymarket
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Benoit Saint Denis 51.7%

Next is Rafael Fiziev at 25%. Only Polymarket lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Benoit Saint Denis 51.7%Rafael Fiziev 25%Mauricio Ruffy 23.3%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
Benoit Saint Denis
51.7%
Polymarket 44.5%(51.7% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 57¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $175 (1.75x)
Polymarket
Contract
Benoit Saint Denis
Last price
44.5%
Fair, margin removed
51.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
57¢
Sell Yes
32¢
$100 on Yes pays
$175 (1.75x)
Volume
$10K
Trade this on Polymarket
Rafael Fiziev
25%
Polymarket 21.5%(25% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Rafael Fiziev
Last price
21.5%
Fair, margin removed
25%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$482
Trade this on Polymarket
Mauricio Ruffy
23.3%
Polymarket 20%(23.3% fair)polled, 58s agoBest Yes 20.7¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $483 (4.83x)
Polymarket
Contract
Mauricio Ruffy
Last price
20%
Fair, margin removed
23.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
20.7¢
Sell Yes
19.3¢
$100 on Yes pays
$483 (4.83x)
Volume
$489
Trade this on Polymarket

Who resolves this market

Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Benoit Saint Denis
  • Rafael Fiziev
  • Mauricio Ruffy

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 3 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "UFC: Who Will Quillan Salkilld Fight Next?". Benoit Saint Denis leads at 51.7%. Next is Rafael Fiziev at 25%. $11K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Aug 9, 2027.

This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter that Quillan Salkilld is officially announced to face in a UFC bout. Resolution for this market will be based on the next UFC fighter that Quillan Salkilld is officially announced to fight, regardless of whether the fight ends up taking place. Only official announcements from the UFC, which include a scheduled date for the bout, will count. Announcements with no date or which do not confirm that the fight is official, speculation, or other unofficial announcements will not count. If Quillan Salkilld is officially announced to fight any non-listed fighter or no qualifying announcement is made by August 8, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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