The Prediction Markets

UK Nominal GDP in 2026

Closes
Apr 1, 2027, in 5 months
Traded
$13K
Venues
Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Above $3.4 trillion 98%

Next is Above $3.5 trillion at 98%. Only Kalshi lists this market, so there is no second price to compare.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above $3.4 trillion
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 47s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.4 trillion
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$96
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3.5 trillion
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 47s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.5 trillion
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$95
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3.6 trillion
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 47s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.6 trillion
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$250
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3.7 trillion
98%
Kalshi 98%polled, 47s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.7 trillion
Last price
98%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$280
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3.8 trillion
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 47s ago
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.8 trillion
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
—
Sell Yes
95¢
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $3.9 trillion
97%
Kalshi 97%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $3.9 trillion
Last price
97%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
93¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4.0 trillion
91%
Kalshi 91%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 99¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $101 (1.01x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.0 trillion
Last price
91%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
99¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$101 (1.01x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4.1 trillion
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 85¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $118 (1.18x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.1 trillion
Last price
83%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
85¢
Sell Yes
75¢
$100 on Yes pays
$118 (1.18x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4.2 trillion
64%
Kalshi 64%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 72¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $139 (1.39x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.2 trillion
Last price
64%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
72¢
Sell Yes
62¢
$100 on Yes pays
$139 (1.39x)
Volume
$75
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4.3 trillion
36%
Kalshi 36%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 36¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $278 (2.78x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.3 trillion
Last price
36%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$121
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4.4 trillion
11%
Kalshi 11%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 17¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $588 (5.88x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.4 trillion
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
17¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$588 (5.88x)
Volume
$70
Trade this on Kalshi
Above $4.5 trillion
7%
Kalshi 7%polled, 47s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above $4.5 trillion
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$1K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Trading Economics

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above $3.4 trillion
  • Above $3.5 trillion
  • Above $3.6 trillion

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (economics rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "UK Nominal GDP in 2026". Above $3.4 trillion leads at 98%. Next is Above $3.5 trillion at 98%. $13K has traded across 12 outcomes on Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Apr 1, 2027.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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