The Prediction Markets

Ulsan HD vs Pohang Steelers

LiveKickoff In play now; prices move fast
Traded
$7K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
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What the markets expect

Ulsan HD 38.1%

Next is Pohang Steelers at 34.7%. The venues differ most on Pohang Steelers (Polymarket 21.5%, Kalshi 43%), a 22-point gap.

Ulsan HD 38.1%Pohang Steelers 34.7%Draw 27.2%

Odds by venue

Fair chance strips out each venue’s built-in margin (its prices add up to more than 100%), then blends the venues by how much has traded there, so the outcomes add up to 100%. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Ulsan HD
38.1%
Polymarket 31%(40.8% fair)polled, 20s agoKalshi 37%(34.6% fair)polled, 20s agoBest Yes 33¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $303 (3.03x)
Polymarket
Contract
Ulsan HD FC
Last price
31%
Fair, margin removed
40.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
33¢
Sell Yes
29¢
$100 on Yes pays
$303 (3.03x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Ulsan HD
Last price
37%
Fair, margin removed
34.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
37¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$270 (2.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 30¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 33¢.

Pohang SteelersArb
34.7%
Polymarket 21.5%(28.3% fair)polled, 20s agoKalshi 43%(40.2% fair)polled, 20s agoBest Yes 22¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $455 (4.55x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pohang Steelers FC
Last price
21.5%
Fair, margin removed
28.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$42
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pohang Steelers
Last price
43%
Fair, margin removed
40.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
47¢
Sell Yes
30¢
$100 on Yes pays
$213 (2.13x)
Volume
$71
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

Buying on Polymarket at 22¢ and selling on Kalshi at 30¢ nets 800 bps before fees.

Draw
27.2%
Polymarket 23.5%(30.9% fair)polled, 20s agoKalshi 27%(25.2% fair)polled, 20s agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Polymarket
Contract
Draw (Ulsan HD FC vs. Pohang Steelers FC)
Last price
23.5%
Fair, margin removed
30.9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
19¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Tie
Last price
27%
Fair, margin removed
25.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$6
Trade this on Kalshi
Partial parity

Payoffs match in ordinary outcomes; see the rule differences below the table.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 22¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 28¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Pohang Steelers on Polymarket at 22¢, sell on Kalshi at 30¢ (800 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Same bet: both settle on the 90-minute result

Both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.

Only differs in an edge case

  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: kleague.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: ESPN, Fox Sports
Show full rule comparison
  • If the game is postponed: Kalshi resolves to a fair price if the game does not start within 48 hours of the scheduled time; Polymarket stays open until the game is played and resolves 50-50 only if it is cancelled with no make-up.
  • Both settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time; extra time and penalties excluded.
  • Trading closes Oct 24, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 5:00 AM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Ulsan HD
  • Pohang Steelers
  • Draw

Live prices for Ulsan HD

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

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Polymarket

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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Cover all 3 outcomes across venues

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "Ulsan HD vs Pohang Steelers". Ulsan HD leads at 38.1%. Next is Pohang Steelers at 34.7%. $7K has traded across 3 outcomes on Polymarket and Kalshi. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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