The Prediction Markets

United Airlines passengers in Q2

Closed
Aug 14, 2026
Traded
$16K
Venues
Kalshi
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This market has closed

Trading ended on Aug 14, 2026. The prices below are the last ones before it closed and no longer update. Browse open markets

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue, the oldest 125 days ago. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Kalshi
Above 46 million
90%
Kalshi 90%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 90¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $111 (1.11x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 46 million
Last price
90%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
90¢
Sell Yes
85¢
$100 on Yes pays
$111 (1.11x)
Volume
$472
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 45 million
88%
Kalshi 88%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 96¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $104 (1.04x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 45 million
Last price
88%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
96¢
Sell Yes
91¢
$100 on Yes pays
$104 (1.04x)
Volume
$876
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 46.5 million
83%
Kalshi 83%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 87¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $115 (1.15x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 46.5 million
Last price
83%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
87¢
Sell Yes
83¢
$100 on Yes pays
$115 (1.15x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 45.5 million
82%
Kalshi 82%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 92¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $109 (1.09x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 45.5 million
Last price
82%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
92¢
Sell Yes
86¢
$100 on Yes pays
$109 (1.09x)
Volume
$895
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 47 million
78%
Kalshi 78%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 84¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $119 (1.19x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 47 million
Last price
78%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
84¢
Sell Yes
79¢
$100 on Yes pays
$119 (1.19x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 47.5 million
74%
Kalshi 74%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 74¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $135 (1.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 47.5 million
Last price
74%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
74¢
Sell Yes
71¢
$100 on Yes pays
$135 (1.35x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 48 million
56%
Kalshi 56%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 56¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $179 (1.79x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 48 million
Last price
56%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
56¢
Sell Yes
49¢
$100 on Yes pays
$179 (1.79x)
Volume
$3K
Trade this on Kalshi
Above 48.5 million
26%
Kalshi 26%polled, 3019 h agoBest Yes 27¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $370 (3.70x)
Kalshi
Contract
Above 48.5 million
Last price
26%
As of
Polled 125 d ago
Buy Yes
27¢
Sell Yes
26¢
$100 on Yes pays
$370 (3.70x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi

Who resolves this market

Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: Fiscal.ai

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Above 46 million
  • Above 45 million
  • Above 46.5 million

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

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Best bid
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Best ask
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Depth · top 8 levels

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Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

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Buy

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Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (other / general rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Final prediction market prices for "United Airlines passengers in Q2". Above 46 million last traded at 90%. Next is Above 45 million at 88%. $16K has traded across 8 outcomes on Kalshi. The market closed on Aug 14, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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