The Prediction Markets

United States Grand Prix Qualifying Session: Pole Position

Starts in 46 hKickoff
Traded
$50K
Venues
Polymarket, Kalshi
Prices updated
just now
Share

What the markets expect

Max Verstappen 49.4%

Next is Kimi Antonelli at 34.4%. Polymarket and Kalshi agree within 1 point on each matched outcome.

Odds by venue

Consensus blends each venue’s last price, weighted by how much has traded there. Best Yes price is the cheapest ask across venues, and the payout is what a winning $100 stake returns before fees. Open a row for each venue’s contract name, bid and ask, and how closely their rules match.

Prices come from our regular polls of each venue. Ages are as of when this page was built.

  • Polymarket
  • Kalshi
Max VerstappenArb
49.4%
Polymarket 44.5%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 37.5%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 72.5%polled, 28s agoKalshi 43%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 41¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $244 (2.44x)
Polymarket
Contract
Max Verstappen
Last price
44.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
45¢
Sell Yes
44¢
$100 on Yes pays
$222 (2.22x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Max Verstappen
Last price
37.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
41¢
Sell Yes
34¢
$100 on Yes pays
$244 (2.44x)
Volume
$690
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Max Verstappen
Last price
72.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
73¢
Sell Yes
72¢
$100 on Yes pays
$137 (1.37x)
Volume
$482
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Max Verstappen
Last price
43%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
43¢
Sell Yes
42¢
$100 on Yes pays
$233 (2.33x)
Volume
$12K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 43¢ and selling on Polymarket at 72¢ nets 2900 bps before fees.

Kimi Antonelli
34.4%
Polymarket 24%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 24.5%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 65%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 25¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $400 (4.00x)
Polymarket
Contract
Kimi Antonelli
Last price
24%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
25¢
Sell Yes
23¢
$100 on Yes pays
$400 (4.00x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Kimi Antonelli
Last price
24.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
28¢
Sell Yes
21¢
$100 on Yes pays
$357 (3.57x)
Volume
$12
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Kimi Antonelli
Last price
65%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
66¢
Sell Yes
64¢
$100 on Yes pays
$152 (1.52x)
Volume
$95
Trade this on Polymarket
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
23%
Kalshi 23%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 23¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $435 (4.35x)
Kalshi
Contract
Andrea Kimi Antonelli
Last price
23%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
23¢
Sell Yes
22¢
$100 on Yes pays
$435 (4.35x)
Volume
$6K
Trade this on Kalshi
George RussellArb
16.4%
Polymarket 9%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 8.5%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 39%polled, 28s agoKalshi 9%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 10¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,000 (10.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
George Russell
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
8¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
George Russell
Last price
8.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
11¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$909 (9.09x)
Volume
$655
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
George Russell
Last price
39%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
40¢
Sell Yes
38¢
$100 on Yes pays
$250 (2.50x)
Volume
$461
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
George Russell
Last price
9%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
9¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 10¢ and selling on Polymarket at 38¢ nets 2800 bps before fees.

Charles LeclercArb
16.1%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 11.5%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 34.5%polled, 28s agoKalshi 11%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 9¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $1,111 (11.1x)
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Leclerc
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$108
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Leclerc
Last price
11.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
13¢
Sell Yes
10¢
$100 on Yes pays
$769 (7.69x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Charles Leclerc
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$5
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Charles Leclerc
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
12¢
Sell Yes
11¢
$100 on Yes pays
$833 (8.33x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 12¢ and selling on Polymarket at 33¢ nets 2100 bps before fees.

Lewis HamiltonArb
14.1%
Polymarket 7.5%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 7.5%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 34.5%polled, 28s agoKalshi 7%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 7¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,429 (14.3x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lewis Hamilton
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$210
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Lewis Hamilton
Last price
7.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$287
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Lewis Hamilton
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
36¢
Sell Yes
33¢
$100 on Yes pays
$278 (2.78x)
Volume
$35
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lewis Hamilton
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$5K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 7¢ and selling on Polymarket at 33¢ nets 2600 bps before fees.

Lando NorrisArb
13.5%
Polymarket 7%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 6.5%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 34.5%polled, 28s agoKalshi 6%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 6¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $1,667 (16.7x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lando Norris
Last price
7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Volume
$143
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Lando Norris
Last price
6.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
7¢
Sell Yes
6¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,429 (14.3x)
Volume
$261
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Lando Norris
Last price
34.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
38¢
Sell Yes
31¢
$100 on Yes pays
$263 (2.63x)
Volume
$39
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lando Norris
Last price
6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6¢
Sell Yes
5¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,667 (16.7x)
Volume
$4K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 6¢ and selling on Polymarket at 31¢ nets 2500 bps before fees.

Oscar PiastriArb
7.1%
Polymarket 3%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 4.3%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 19%polled, 28s agoKalshi 2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oscar Piastri
Last price
3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.2¢
Sell Yes
1.7¢
$100 on Yes pays
$2,381 (23.8x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Oscar Piastri
Last price
4.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.5¢
Sell Yes
2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,538 (15.4x)
Volume
$430
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Oscar Piastri
Last price
19%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
17¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$98
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Oscar Piastri
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$2K
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 17¢ nets 1500 bps before fees.

Isack HadjarArb
6.4%
Polymarket 2.2%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 3.3%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 18%polled, 28s agoKalshi 2%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 2¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $5,000 (50.0x)
Polymarket
Contract
Isack Hadjar
Last price
2.2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
3.3¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,030 (30.3x)
Volume
$446
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Isack Hadjar
Last price
3.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
5.5¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$1,818 (18.2x)
Volume
$235
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Isack Hadjar
Last price
18%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
21¢
Sell Yes
15¢
$100 on Yes pays
$476 (4.76x)
Volume
$57
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Isack Hadjar
Last price
2%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2¢
Sell Yes
1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$5,000 (50.0x)
Volume
$961
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

Buying on Kalshi at 2¢ and selling on Polymarket at 15¢ nets 1300 bps before fees.

Yuki Tsunoda
4.8%
Polymarket 0.5%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 11%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Polymarket, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Yuki Tsunoda
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$15
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Yuki Tsunoda
Last price
11%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
22¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$455 (4.55x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Yuki Tsunoda
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Show 14 more outcomes
Alexander Albon
2.1%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 1.4%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 5%polled, 28s agoKalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Alexander Albon
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.4¢
Sell Yes
0.2¢
$100 on Yes pays
$7,143 (71.4x)
Volume
$94
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Alexander Albon
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Alexander Albon
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Alexander Albon
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.2¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Esteban Ocon
1.9%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 1.4%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 5%polled, 28s agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Esteban Ocon
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Esteban Ocon
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Esteban Ocon
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Esteban Ocon
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Franco Colapinto
1.9%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 1.4%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 5%polled, 28s agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Franco Colapinto
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Franco Colapinto
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Franco Colapinto
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Franco Colapinto
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Gabriel Bortoleto
1.9%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 1.4%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 5%polled, 28s agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Bortoleto
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Bortoleto
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Gabriel Bortoleto
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Gabriel Bortoleto
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Nico Hulkenberg
1.9%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 1.4%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 5%polled, 28s agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Nico Hulkenberg
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Nico Hulkenberg
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Nico Hulkenberg
Last price
5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
10¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,000 (10.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Nico Hulkenberg
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Fernando Alonso
1.9%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 1.4%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 4.5%polled, 28s agoKalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Fernando Alonso
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$165
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Fernando Alonso
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.7¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,704 (37.0x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Fernando Alonso
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Fernando Alonso
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$251
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Valtteri Bottas
1.8%
Polymarket 0.7%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 1.4%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 4.8%polled, 28s agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Valtteri Bottas
Last price
0.7%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.2¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$8,333 (83.3x)
Volume
$271
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Valtteri Bottas
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Valtteri Bottas
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Valtteri Bottas
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Lance Stroll
1.8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 1.4%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 4.8%polled, 28s agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Lance Stroll
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$421
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Lance Stroll
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Lance Stroll
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Lance Stroll
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Sergio Perez
1.8%
Polymarket 0.6%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 1.4%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 4.8%polled, 28s agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Sergio Perez
Last price
0.6%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.1¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$9,091 (90.9x)
Volume
$464
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sergio Perez
Last price
1.4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,571 (35.7x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Sergio Perez
Last price
4.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9.5¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,053 (10.5x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Sergio Perez
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Oliver Bearman
1.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 1.5%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 4%polled, 28s agoKalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Oliver Bearman
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Oliver Bearman
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Oliver Bearman
Last price
4%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
8¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,250 (12.5x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Oliver Bearman
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$13
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Carlos Sainz Jr.
1.8%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 1.3%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 4.5%polled, 28s agoKalshi 0.5%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Carlos Sainz Jr.
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Volume
$10
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Carlos Sainz Jr.
Last price
1.3%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.6¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,846 (38.5x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Carlos Sainz Jr.
Last price
4.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,111 (11.1x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Carlos Sainz Jr.
Last price
0.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Liam Lawson
1.7%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 1.5%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 3.5%polled, 28s agoKalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Liam Lawson
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Liam Lawson
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Liam Lawson
Last price
3.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,449 (14.5x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Liam Lawson
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$200
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Pierre Gasly
1.6%
Polymarket 1.5%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 1.5%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 2.5%polled, 28s agoKalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Pierre Gasly
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Pierre Gasly
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Pierre Gasly
Last price
2.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
4.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$2,041 (20.4x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Pierre Gasly
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$467
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Arvid Lindblad
1.6%
Polymarket 0.8%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 1.5%polled, 28s agoPolymarket 3.1%polled, 28s agoKalshi 1%polled, 28s agoBest Yes 1¢ on Kalshi, $100 pays $10,000 (100x)
Polymarket
Contract
Arvid Lindblad
Last price
0.8%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1.5¢
Sell Yes
0.1¢
$100 on Yes pays
$6,667 (66.7x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Arvid Lindblad
Last price
1.5%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
2.9¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$3,448 (34.5x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Polymarket
Contract
Arvid Lindblad
Last price
3.1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
6.2¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$1,613 (16.1x)
Trade this on Polymarket
Kalshi
Contract
Arvid Lindblad
Last price
1%
As of
Polled just now
Buy Yes
1¢
Sell Yes
—
$100 on Yes pays
$10,000 (100x)
Volume
$23
Trade this on Kalshi
Same label, rules unverified

Labels suggest the same named outcome; no persisted outcome identity or settlement parity is verified.

No arbitrage: the best bid elsewhere is 0.1¢, at or below the cheapest ask of 1¢.

Possible arbitrage before fees: buy Max Verstappen on Kalshi at 43¢, sell on Polymarket at 72¢ (2900 bps). Check the rules below before trading. See all live spreads

Mostly the same bet: one difference

Where they differ

  • Trading closes at different times: Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.
Polymarket
Polymarket resolves via:
UMA optimistic oracle, source: formula1.com
Kalshi
Kalshi resolves via:
Kalshi (CFTC-regulated exchange), source: FIA
Show full rule comparison
  • Trading closes Nov 1, 2026, 8:00 PM UTC on Polymarket and Oct 26, 2026, 11:00 PM UTC on Kalshi.

Summarized from each venue’s published rules; the venue’s own rules page is the final word.

How the odds have moved

The top 3 outcomes on both venues, with the consensus between them. Hover for exact values.

  • Max Verstappen
  • Kimi Antonelli
  • Andrea Kimi Antonelli

Live prices for Max Verstappen

What it costs to buy Yes, what you would get selling it, and the last trade on each exchange, updating as orders change. Hover a status for timing details.

Order books

Each venue’s resting orders for the selected outcome’s Yes contract, side by side. Top of book streams live; depth refreshes every 15 seconds.

Combined depth · both venues

Loading both order books…

Polymarket

Open on Polymarket ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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Kalshi

Open on Kalshi ↗

Top of book

Connecting
Best bid
—
Spread
—
Best ask
—

Waiting for the first live quote…

Depth · top 8 levels

Loading snapshot…

Recent trades

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What your stake buys

Enter a stake to see where it buys the most after fees, using each venue’s live order book.

$
Buy

Loading both order books…

Buys at the asks resting now (taker orders), cheapest after fees first, from order-book snapshots up to 15 seconds old. Fees: Kalshi 0.07 × price × (1 − price) per share, rounded up to the cent; Polymarket 0.05 × price × (1 − price) per share (sports rate). Fee calculator. Estimates only, not advice.

About this market

Live prediction market odds for "United States Grand Prix Qualifying Session: Pole Position". Max Verstappen leads at 49.4%. Next is Kimi Antonelli at 34.4%. $50K has traded across 24 outcomes on Kalshi and Polymarket. The market is expected to resolve by Oct 26, 2026.

Questions

What does the consensus price mean?

It is the price of a Yes contract that pays $1 if the outcome happens. A 14¢ price means traders put the chance near 14%. Where two venues list the same outcome, we blend their last prices, weighting the venue with more trading volume more heavily (neither counts for less than a quarter). When only one outcome can win, each venue’s prices add up to a little over 100% (its margin); the fair chance removes that margin so the outcomes add up to exactly 100%.

How is the payout worked out?

A Yes contract pays $1 if it wins, so at the best ask a $100 stake buys 100 ÷ ask contracts. At 18¢ that is about 555 contracts, paying $556 (5.56x) if Yes happens. Venue fees and price slippage on larger orders are not included.

Why do the venues show different prices?

Each venue has its own traders, fees and order book. Contracts can also settle on slightly different terms, which is why each row lists how closely the rules match.

Is a price gap an arbitrage?

Only when you can buy Yes on one venue below what someone pays for Yes on the other, after fees, and both contracts settle the same way. We show the executable bid and ask so you can check.

How fresh are these prices?

Venue prices refresh every few minutes, and the order book and live quotes stream continuously. Each venue’s card shows when we last observed it.

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